A. Would Taiwan get sympathetic coverage like Kuwait being invaded by Iraq ala 1990?
B. Or would it be sympathetic, but more like Chechenya being invaded by Russia (twice) with some general unease about the tactics used, "but, hey, what can we do about it when its a part of Russia?"
C. Or would China be smart enough to make it look like Georgia-Russia 2008 or Gaza/Israel - war is very, very bad, but those crazy Taiwanese had it coming?
Important points to consider:
Taiwan is a democracy. China is not. That could be helpful.
The media will want access to China in the future and might consider that in their reporting.
International law is technically on China's side.
Europeans are far away from Asia and sell a lot of stuff to China.
What else am I missing?
My predicition would be a mixture of B & C for most international media. Any A style coverage will be from some outlets in the American press and possibly Japanese press.
China will definitely have some sort of excuse for its "intervention" and probably even an "invitation to restore order" from pro-unification elements. (How about rioting in Taiwan over party-party unification talks in China in the waning days of a Ma administration that allows KMT old guard to ask for help "to restore order" from China?)
Since the international media probably doesn't have strong feelings about Taiwan (the initial panic will be why Thailand is being attacked by amphibious invasion and then a mad scramble to find Taiwan on their globe) they will probably try to be neutral in their reporting, like in the Georgia example. This will include dutifully reminding viewers that according to the UN, Taiwan is part of China, etc., etc. They will be especially careful in reporting on the Taiwan side, other than the pyrotechnics, because they know that China could cut access to their networks at any time.
Is that too pessimistic?

1 comment:
Just to be clear about the Gaza/Israel thing, the argument works for both sides. Pro-Israel folk can complain that Hamas had it coming and vice versa.
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