The last time we had a huge financial crisis in Asia back in 1997, authoritarian dictators like Suharto whose claim to fame was economic growth got the boot. China escaped that crisis pretty much unscathed.
But now China is undergoing big economic dislocations with the current recession, and it might be enough to cause some political change. You have declining stock markets, housing markets, higher unemployment, and slower growth.
I would not bet the farm on this, but unless China can keep growth up, there may be some political upheaval - especially if its not just migrating peasants feeling the shock, but white collar types.
any thoughts?
4 comments:
Someone in China is going to have to come up with a palatable alternative to challenge the CCP. I don't think that offering the Chinese American style pluralism and economics would go over so well right now.
Talking about a revolution...........
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CspmQef4UBk&annotation_id=annotation_623388&feature=iv
How is Fiona?
Tom
Karl,
Sometimes it more about opposing than proposing. I also think democracy is not going to be out of favor any time soon - seriously, what's the better system?
I also don't see China leaving capitalism soon, either, despite our financial troubles. 1997 proved that financial troubles can hit authoritarians, too - so there is no panacea. (Except maybe an end to fractional reserve banking.)
Tom,
Call me....
My phone no longer has you in its memory...
RedA
So if you change your question to: "Will China have open rebellion in 2009?", then I'll answer "in all likelihood, yes".
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