Notes from this Week End

A. My Daughter Turned 4 Years Old.

She got some sweet birthday presents, including a cool Mickey Mouse Clubhouse. She is really enjoying this toy, and has confirmed her status as a fangirl, by getting all upset when I tried to put some of her older, larger figurines into the clubhouse. Apparently, the Donald Duck and Goofy figures were "not the right size!" Well, EXCUSE me.

She also scored a Ladybug game, a electronic keyboard, and a stuffed animal.

B. Late night movie on HBO

I saw parts of an action movie about a violent encounter between American Indians and Viking warriors. It was kind of cool, though possibly too cliche in that the natives were the usual hippies with bows and arrows. The hero is a Viking orphan who has grown up among the natives and fights against the evil Viking invaders. Still, not a bad premise.

Until the hero tricks the heavily armored Vikings into walking out onto some ice.

Hero: "They come from a land of ice and snow, but they do not know our Spring."

Yeah, right, Vikings have no idea how dangerous thin ice is, and would never think of sending one guy across at a time or even just walking around it.

Nameless Viking: "He is trying to slow us down! We are not cowards!"

It's a little known fact that just being stupid enough to fall through the ice also gets you into Valhalla. That scene basically ruined the movie for me.

C. Diet Tip

If you don't drink beer you lose more weight than from just the diet. I have lost five kilos already after 3 weeks without any beer.

Asshole

Some asshole brought a monkey doll with an Obama sticker on it to a McCain rally.

He of course is getting the attention he wants while harming the candidate he supposedly supports.

Oh well. If Obama wins, I hope this fucker is heartbroken enough to stop participating in politics.

Spam Catch of the Day

I have get spam from Eurotrash who thinks American government uses the word Formular.

Better luck phishing next time, Ivan, Hans or Pedro.

p.s. I never did get my stimulus check.

Yahoo News Headlines

1. Headline we have not seen in a long time...

Learn where to keep cash once taking it out of stocks

Next up..."Under the mattress or in a hole in the ground actually safer and more attractive than in any financial institution worldwide."

2. The presidential candidates are so busy merging their positions that the headline writers can now economize them into single headlines.

Obama, McCain health care plans would reduce uninsured

I wonder if either of them is now thinking to themselves "do I really want to be president?"

If you are feeling overwhelmed...

Don't worry! It easier than ever to start over.

First, drop the house payment and let the bank deal with the mortgage crisis.

www.youwalkaway.com

Next, drive you and your family over to Nebraska, where you can abandon your children without any legal repercussions.

Now, all you have left is the wife to get rid of and you are basically a college student again.

p.s. Don't worry about the Roth IRA or 401K accounts. Those will liquidate themselves within a few days time.

The Society of Systematic Innovation

They sent me an email about their 2009 workshop "The First Systematic Innovation Conference & Problem Solving Workshop Ever"

The first day is devoted to:

技能導引: Patent circumvention & strategy workshop專利迴避與佈局研習會

Hmmmmmm, systemic innovation's first concern is how to get around the other guy's patent.

How innovative!

Karl, if you are interested I can forward the e-mail to you. Maybe we could both attend. Its in January 2009.

Overpriced

Desk lamp from Design Within Reach.

Retails at US$ 370.00.

Oh, and the light bulb costs you 5 bucks extra.

Maybe its made of Adamantine.

Nice Moment

I caught my daughter making an imaginary phone call to Winnie the Pooh today.

Very cute. She got all embarrassed until I left.

Then she talked to him some more.

Probably about the near-collapse of the money market last week.

MSN Lifestyle Tips or whatever

from the Messenger pop-up window...

"8 Power Salads"

Hmmmmm, should I try the Makita or stick with Black& Decker?

p.s. Don't click on the link. Its just there for evidence.

About some of those China prices...

One of the great mysteries of life is how in the hell do some Chinese companies manage to sell products at "below cost." For example, I have heard about super low prices for children's markers, 50% cheaper than a Hong Kong owned factory in China can offer.

Maybe they can pay less for labor than the foreign-owned firm. Maybe they can skip a lot of regulations. Maybe they use poor materials or have a sweetheart deal with a state-owned supplier. Maybe they just want to make a tiny profit. Still, its hard to see how that comes out to 50% cheaper and below the cost of raw materials.

But now I hear this complaint coming from a local Chinese factory owner discussing the office chair market. There is an area in China that has become a hub for office chairs (Anji in Zhejiang, I believe.) All the buyers flocked there to buy chairs for a while. The prices were super low and seemed to be below cost. This factory owner said he checked into their costs for labor, and found it was not much lower than for Dongguan. Land was cheaper, but that should not matter as much.

His theory is that many of these factories are simply not planning to pay their suppliers at the end of the day, and take all of their "profits" and invest in land, hotels, etc. in their own personal name. No wonder they can offer prices below cost, because they don't plan on having any costs.

And this is not a Chinese thing, because I have heard there was once an American importer of office chairs who went from province to province placing orders and then never paying his factories. This guy of course had all of Wal-Mart's orders. Everyone in the industry was going bananas for years trying to figure out how those prices were possible. They weren't.

This year I also had to compete against "bankruptcy pricing" with two different factories. I sure felt better when they finally died off, owing millions of US dollars to their suppliers, and my customers shut up about my price increases. Hey, I could keep prices low too if I never planned on paying for any materials.

Another theory on how some China factories can quote below cost is that they are not actually in the business of making products for profit, but instead are laundering money for corrupt officials or criminals. These officials need to get their ill gotten loot out of China and pay up to 15% to have factories help them do this. Since the factories are really in the money laundering business, they quote below cost to get some big orders fast. They are willing to lose 50 cents per piece to get a nice steady flow going. I would guess they would also choose large-volume low-tech industries like marker pens or office chairs. Supposedly Zhongshan is a big center of this activity.

I find both of these theories to be pretty compelling.

Of course, the first theory depends on suppliers being willing to offer credit to their customers. At some point, the suppliers who survive (and most don't) would wise up and demand payment in cash. Guess what? That is now the situation in China. You have to pay cash to get most materials. And funnily, enough, prices are rising in China, perhaps reflecting not just Chinese growth but an end to using bankruptcy pricing.

Coincidence or evidence?

Tips from a China Hand

1. Turn on the air conditioning. Full blast. Company is paying after all.

2. When loading your ipod (killer app when sitting in traffic in Dongguan) make sure you don't somehow configure it to auto-fill alphabetically. ABBA is good stuff. But not that good.

3. The time you spent fixing a quality control problem for your QC contract customer could have been spent more profitably selling real products to a real company that is willing to pay more for good products in the first place.

4. You must be crazy, because customers will fucking take it up the ass to "go direct" to a shitty factory rather than pay some blood-sucking trading company the small amount that would make all this shit go away in the first place.

5. You know China's economy is fucked up when they let blogspot posts through.

5a. Don't trust anyone who says they are a "China Hand" unless they are an 81 year old Marine Corps vet. Or maybe a 18 year old girl from Hunan who is washing your feet.

From behind the Great Firewall

Are you feeling pissed off at the world? Do you want to stick to The Man?

Just go into your gmail account, and start clicking on all of those content advertisers.

They're probably paying around US$ 0.50 per click.

or, if you are feeling responsible today, my advice is the opposite:

Unless you really want to buy sidewalk chalk with a minimum order of 300 cartons DON'T FREAKING CLICK ON MY ADS.

Carbon Footprints

Going veggie can slash your carbon footprint: study

Here' s the breakdown.

Meateater = driving 4,758 km

Vegetarian = driving 2,427 km

Vegan = driving 629 km

Organic Vegan = driving 281 km

But they forgot something:

Killing the dirty hippy who wants you to become an Organic Vegan would let you offset your meat eating for 5.78 years.*

*Assume said hippy would live 50 years, producing 281 km worth of driving carbon emissions per year for a total of 14,050 driving mile equivalents, divisible by 4,758 miles/year = 5.78.

Cheat Sheets for Factory Audits

Jury awards Mattel $100 million in Bratz doll maker lawsuit

While trying to learn what the heck a Bratz doll is, I found this interesting tidbit on Wikipedia.

The allegations in the report describe practices found at many Chinese factories producing name-brand products for export. They include required overtime exceeding the legal maximum of 36 hours a month, forcing workers to stay on the job to meet stringent production quotas and the denial of paid sick leave and other benefits.^[11] The report shows copies of what it says are "cheat sheets" distributed to workers before auditors from Wal-Mart or other customers arrive to make sure the factory passes inspections intended to ensure the supplier meets labor standards.

I definitely believe that the factory uses cheat sheets. This is a common practice to get around the social audit requirements. Another ploy is for an factory that can pass audits to outsource its production to other factories who could not. I always wondered if it was worth the effort to game the system by keeping multiple books, creating cheat sheets for workers, etc.

I also think the auditors who make more money when the factory fails (repeat business!) have a little too much incentive to be anal. You can always find a reason to fail any inspection. We had one our factories fail based on not having enough first aid kits available, even though the factory had a full-time nurse on duty. I wonder if a bribe would have resulted in the auditors finding that they were "mistaken" about the violation.

Walmart does have these kinds of problems finding suppliers. They have to be huge and able to ship massive quantities in a two-week shipping window. That is very difficult from a logistical perspective. They have to pass the audit, which means they have the same costs associated with a Western plant. But they have to be dirt cheap, too.

Personally, I am a little tired of all of the hoops everyone has to jump through. Our importer may be doing business with a large chain store soon, so I just got the 50 pages of requirements in PDF form. Yay! Its quite streamlined now, so the China buying offices start dealing direct with the importer's China office (that's us.) All of the tedious work is thrown on our shoulders, while the importer sends a one liner email:

"Hey buddy, I am assuming we are all okay with these requirements, right?"

Yeah, let me review the 7 different test regimes they require and get back to you. Oh, and the buying office is asking me about payment terms...I guess I should feel good that the customer trusts me about this stuff.

CHINA TRIP: September 3-19

Total Days outside Taiwan in 2008: 73

Yahoo News

GOP 'war room' revs up as Romney hits the airwaves

Story not very interesting, don't need to click the link, but I found two gems:

Giuliani, along with another vanquished McCain foe, Mitt Romney, made a flurry of media rounds in the continuing GOP effort to counter the Democratic convention narrative.

Anyone want to bet that this journalist has reads fantasy novels? I mean this in a good way..."defeated opponent" is boring sounding. Vanquished Foe is much better. I imagine McCain the Barbarian defiling the body of Romney before enslaving his wife and children. Though I don't know how a Gelatinous Cube ends up as a Barbarian.

At the same time, three GOP members of Congress — a Cuban-American, a woman and a Jew —

Wait, wait, I think I know this joke. Does an elephant come into the bar next?

were among party people who joined Mitt Romney on the party's shoot-from-the-sidelines attack on Barack Obama on Tuesday.

Oh. Its not a joke. Damn.

Punished for purchases

The allegations, in part, focus on CompuCredit's Aspire Visa, a subprime credit card for risky borrowers. The FTC claims that CompuCredit didn't properly disclose that it monitored spending and cut credit lines if consumers used their cards at certain places. Among them: tire and retreading shops, massage parlors, bars, billiard halls and marriage counseling offices.

"The company touted that cardholders could use their credit cards anywhere," says J. Reilly Dolan, assistant director for financial practices at the FTC. "What they didn't say was that you could be punished for specific kinds of purchases."

That's pretty smart of the card companies. Except I don't get tire and retreading shops as a danger sign for credit risk. Oh and they got the sequence wrong in the story. It should be chronological as follows:

1. Billiard Hall

2. Bar

3. Massage Parlor

wait 12-18 hours and then...

4. Marriage Counseling

Armchair General

Is Georgia is too far away for NATO or the USA to militarily help them?


...and for an even better map that shows the roads and ports, plus Russian bombing attacks, check out the Georgian Ministry of Defence website here...

TURKEY would be the key...with the huge caveat that they may not be interested in helping Georgia. But, assuming they are concerned about keeping a buffer state with Russia and protecting the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline, let's look at what they bring to the equation.

Turkey borders Georgia. Turkey is a NATO ally.

Logistically, Turkey has Mediterranean and Black Sea ports. Turkey has a US airbase at Incirlik. Turkey has roads leading to Batumi, a port in Georgia, and from there, road connections to Tbilisi, including one that does not go through Russian occupied Gori. But these roads, including a direct land route from Ardahan, look like they go through serious mountain terrain. Note also the Erzurum is a major air base for the Turkish air force and has runways that are the second longest in Turkey.

In terms of direct military aid, Turkey already has a frigate off the coast of the port of Batumi in Georgia, and as NATO's second largest army, its land forces, could deploy into Western Georgia along the coastal roads, and possibly into Eastern Georgia via Ardahan. The 9th Corps based at Erzurum, with its 9th infantry division in Sarikamis, would be the most likely forces to be used. Note that this information is completely speculative, and according to Wikipedia, many of the Turkish 3rd Army forces in the area, including an entire Corps in Trabazon have been moved after the Cold War ended (to Cyrprus and the Iraq border.) I wonder if any units are moving back?

ARMENIA almost certainly won't help.

As they have a Russian military base on their territory that supposedly was used to send air sorties against Georgia. But they do have a road into Georgia and a rail link from Turkey through their territory to Tbilisi. But they don't have a seaport or any US bases, so they would not be too useful in any event.

AZERBAIJAN is very slightly more likely to help.

They are already involved in NATO Partnership for Peace and have deployed peacekeepers to Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Earlier this year, there was an espionage scandal in Azerbaijan involving the Russians. Even so, taking on the Russian bear would be too much.

Then again, they might be worried enough by Georgia's fate to decide to help, logistically at least. The price for serious assistance might be a quid-pro-quo on Nagorno-Karabakh and I am not sure that would be forthcoming. In any case, they have road and rail links to Tbilisi, though their lack of an ocean port along with easy land access again limits to the usefulness of their territory as a logistics base.

CONCLUSION: Turkey will be the main decision maker as to whether Georgia could be defended by the West or not.

If Turkey is willing to help even as merely a logistics base it does not look impossible at all (ignoring the question of if we have enough troops to do so.) In fact, its probably a better supply line than we have in Afghanistan.

If they are interested in keeping their pipeline and buffer state in Georgia intact to the point of offering military assistance, defending Georgia looks extremely viable. If they supplied most of the land forces, NATO could focus on the air and naval forces which are not as committed to the counter-insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I have to wonder if the Georgians shouldn't have been buttering up the Turks more than the Americans. (Maybe they have been?)

NOTE: I am not sure I would advocate defending Georgia, except diplomatically. This is just a thought exercise.

Yahoo News

Scientists prove that Karl is a pussy.

Ghenghis "You wouldn't like me when I'm angry" Khan

Yahoo Headline

College presidents seek to lower drinking age from 21 to 18

Now they want to do that. After ganking me out of free drinks when I was an undergrad.

Some group called the Amethyst Initiative wants to rethink the drinking age. I love the photos they use on their website. They reminded me of all the dinner parties I attended as an 18 year old freshman, where I drank the social glass or two of red wine with my fellow scholars.

I guess the other instances of college drinking like beer bonging in the dorm bathrooms or playing quarters until people threw up have never been documented with photographs so they couldn't use those in their website.

I got slammed

in A&A on Saturday.

Also by beer. I did a recount and it wasn't really that much beer. But it did its work.

I'd describe myself as sloshy almost ready to chew my cud by the time I left.

Somehow I did not get in trouble with the wife.

Debate Coaches go head to head

NOT SAFE FOR WORK DUE TO LANGUAGE AND HIPPY TAKING DOWN HIS PANTS.



Amazing.

NOT SAFE FOR WORK DUE TO LANGUAGE AND HIPPY TAKING DOWN HIS PANTS.

Yahoo Headline

Huge inflatable art piece escapes museum, wreaks havoc

GENEVA (AFP) - A giant inflatable dog turd by American artist Paul McCarthy blew away from an exhibition in the garden of a Swiss museum, bringing down a power line and breaking a greenhouse window before it landed again, the museum said Monday.

The art work, titled "Complex Shit", is the size of a house. The wind carried it 200 metres (yards) from the Paul Klee Centre in Berne before it fell back to Earth in the grounds of a children's home, said museum director Juri Steiner.

The inflatable turd broke the window at the children's home when it blew away on the night of July 31, Steiner said. The art work has a safety system which normally makes it deflate when there is a storm, but this did not work when it blew away.

Steiner said McCarthy had not yet been contacted and the museum was not sure if the piece would be put back on display.

Looks like there was some warning...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7374546.stm

Fighting the last war...

So, since we seem to have gotten better at fighting insurgencies, built up light infantry units, promoted generals who understand unconventional war, etc., now of course we might have a crisis with the Russians in Georgia. Who have all those tanks and artillery.

Its like the rule of "preparing to to fight the last war" is making sure to assert itself or something.

Libertarian Paternalism

This is supposed to be an up and coming "Third Way" in politics, sort of a cross between the Nanny State that tells you what to do and the Cool Uncle State that lets you do whatever you want to do. The Tories in the UK are enthusiastic about this stuff and this book in particular. (You can listen to a podcast by the author here.)

I posted the example before of some place in SoCal banning fast food restaurants in an attempt to force people to eat better food. That's pretty much the Nanny State.

Now we have the city of LA forcing restaurants to post the calorie counts on their menus. This would be an example of Libertarian Paternalism...you're allowed to make your own choice, but information is provided.

I like this idea much better than the ban. I'm counting calories as it is right now, and that would be a useful bit of information for me to make decisions. I know that in Taiwan McDonalds prints calories on the packaging, but isn't that a bit too late, once you've already bought the item?

(I also like Unit Pricing. Carrefour does a good job with this. Costco not so much. It actually pisses me off when there is no unit pricing in a store.)

Now, the restaurants are apparently opposed to this idea. I am not sure why that should be.

Once you've actually sat down in a restaurant, are you going to leave because the items on the menu are too fattening? Like you don't already know that TGI Fridays has huge portions of fried foods. Will most people who are not on a diet even care?

Or is there some risk that people start to order lighter fare on menus which somehow would translate to less profit?

I'd be interested to know how much of a hit the Hostess people took on sales of Twinkies when it had to first print nutritional information on the packaging.

Or maybe its just a pain in the ass to calculate calorie counts for menus? Using the recipe calculator doesn't seem too hard.

And will there be monitoring and enforcement?

Wal-Mart's China Woes

Ding dong the Witch is dead! Ding Dong the Witch is dead!

Walmart buying offices in China are being closed.

業內人士分析，沃爾瑪全球採購中心在大陸地區兩地裁員，源於其經營不善。據悉，這個採購部門自2002年4月份正式成立以來，經營情況不好，東莞分部成立於當年12月5日，而採購中心成立的目的，是便於公司直接進入業務和工廠的直業採購，從而降低採購成本。

Loose translation is that Wal-Mart's offices that were set up in 2002 to buy direct from factories are not doing very well.

但是，從成立以來，該部門一直競爭不過為沃爾瑪服務的貿易商，採購中心的增加直接採購與降低成本方面，都沒有幫上沃爾瑪的忙，反而增加了成本

In fact, the buying offices could not beat the trading companies, and have not helped Wal-Mart reduced their cost, but in fact have increased them.

UPDATE:

Cool video shows Wal-Mart stores expansion in the USA.

Errrrrrratta

Autoblinda 41 - this Italian armored car could go up to 49 mph with a 20 mm cannon and 8mm machine guns fore and aft to help clear any traffic. A fully-stocked gelato and cappucino service station in the rear made this a popular vehicle with Italian troops.

Estonia has a GDP per capita of about US$ 14,000 and is the richest of the 3 Baltic states, and one of the richest nations in Eastern Europe. While Latveria has Dr. Doom, Estonia is sadly lacking in supervillians. Just think how much capital investment you could get by attracting a supervillian to relocate his secret base to your country!

GREAT NEWS!

There has been a major fire in a Nippon Steel factory making coke. This will cause a huge drop in steel production, which may mean MORE steel price increases. And just today my customer told me not to raise any more prices because, you know, oil is down, so steel should be next. (Pretty falacious reasoning and even if steel was going to come down in 30 days how does that help me buy material NOW for orders he wants NOW?)

p.s. Oil is now at 125 or so, but it was at 100 in January, so its still up 25%...

Yahoo Headlines

L.A. poised to vote on fast-food ban in low-income areas

http://www.yahoo.com/s/925151

I am not a libertarian, but stuff like this makes me re-consider.

Sometimes you have to read your spam...

Message subject:

Both Obama And Mccain Claim That They Will Deport Elton John

Body:

[audio] Church Group Offers Homosexual New Life In Closet

plus some link which I won't even touch with Chaon's network connection.

Yahoo News Headlines

Mystery of who, when and why for McCain VP deepens

Seriously. I don't even click this story because of the headline.

They actually included 3 of the "Five W's" of journalism in the headline.

Okay, maybe its me. Maybe some people are deeply interested in the VP selection horse race. Its probably full of insights and analysis, but I''d rather read a story about Rye and Pimp's fantasy baseball trades.

I call this McCain exploiting MSM guilt to disrupt Obama's overseas trip.

Sort of like a "Balance of Fluff."

You learn something everyday

Frenemy (from wikipedia)

Frenemy or frienemy is a portmanteau of friend and enemy which can refer to either an enemy disguised as a friend or to a partner that is simultaneously a competitor.

In personal relationships, the use of the term 'frenemy' has become increasingly used to describe two (or more) people who are apparently friends but are actually enemies. Such relationships may occur due to the desire (of either) to keep a close eye on the actions of their close rival (i.e. keep your friends close, keep your enemies even closer).

Alternatively, two people who are apparently enemies may actually be friends in private, with the apparently hostile relationship portrayed in order to deceive or for other forms of gain. Such an arrangement may even be used to cover up a secret relationship between the two parties. Or, the two people might actually like and hate each other simultaneously.

It can also apply to international relations, such as US-Pakistan, US-Saudi Arabia, US-China, and of course US-France relations. Are these friends masquerading as enemies or the other way 'round?

Bonus thought:

While thinking about the word "frenemy", you may have the word "frenema" somehow pop into your head. If that happens, just know that a google search shows that you are not alone in this.

Hope and Change

57 states and 8-10 years. Looks like for in for big, big changes. Here's the math:

57 states means that Texas will indeed take their option to split into five states, while DC, Puerto Rico, and Guam get statehood. Or maybe California finally splits into two states. I am betting Southern California's new capital would be Chula Vista, to make sure they are safe from invasion from any unificationist threat from the North.

Or wait, maybe we're talking a 54' 40" scenario. The Coalition of the Swilling would be the US, France, Britain, and Denmark. France gets Quebec, Britain some of the Atlantic , Denmark gets the coveted Nunavut and Hans Island, while the US scoops up the 7 border provinces. And the best part of a Canadian war is that you don't really need to juice up the intel to sell the public on it. Pretty much just needs a show of hands.

8-10 years simply means that close to the end of the most successful presidency in history, there will be a movement to allow a two-year bonus extension to presidency if your approval numbers are above 50% in your last year. Or maybe an extra year if you get the ball to go up the ramp and into that hole that lights up. That's quite tricky to do once let alone twice, but the O-man has such a supple wrist. Keep in mind a tilt means you lose control of Congress for 2 years, though.

A lesson for Taiwan?

The Winter War.

There is a great movie about this war...also called Winter War.

Keep in mind that Finland did not have a large strait separating them from the Soviets, and they also did not depend on a superpower's guarantee.

Of course, the Finns did technically lose.

I would also suggest Taiwan could seriously prepare for an amphibious invasion by China using low tech solutions without reliance on the USA. Are they doing so? I have no idea.

My real point is that many Taiwanese I know are far too ready to believe that China could take them over in 15 minutes....its almost like they wouldn't mind it.

Econonmic Times

I am listening to a podcast This American Life about the mortgage crisis and they do a pretty good job of explaining the situation, especially the global causes. Basically, the global pool of money doubled from 36 trillion dollars to over 70 trillion in just 6 years as China, India, oil exporters etc. started taking off. This money has to be parked somewhere, and it was going into US Treasuries until Greenspan cut interest rates to 1% which caused a wild scramble to find other investments that would yield higher than 1%. Apparently the mortgage backed securities were very popular. "Safe as houses" and with a nice, juicy yield.

Now that bubble has popped and I have to wonder if maybe this same huge surge of money is still wandering around the globe searching for new places to be parked. Say, in commodities?

I'd also say that a lot of that money was invested within China in the form of the kazillion factories that went up, and that are now going down.

Let me re-post a quote from a June 2007 post.

Chinese billionaire Yin Mingshan (尹明善) on liquidity:

"We live in a world of over-abundant liquidity. We live in a China of over-abundant liquidity. Even relatively backward Chongqing is blessed with over-abundant liquidity."

Now, if we have too much liquidity, does that mean the inflation we are seeing is because of that, as inflation is "always monetary" or is that pool of money hard money, i.e. not printed, and thus wouldn't necessarily cause the inflation, but because its seemed to move on from housing to commodities (just a theory) it caused raw material prices to go up beyond "normal" demand, making the appearance of inflation? Note that "normal" demand is rising with China, India, etc., so I am talking about the pool of money acting as starter fluid being dumped on an already raging fire. IANAE, and this is speculation so don't get all up on me here.

So, what should we be investing in? If you could ride the tide of money and time your departures that would make you a lot of money. So what's next after commodities come down?

Yahoo Headlines

Now THIS is a headline!

Iran condemns John McCain for cigarette joke

You don't click that and read this article?

The joke was pretty bad - not very tactful, but it reminds us that John McCain, too, is a dirty, filthy quitter. Not very American if you ask me.

Yahoo Headlines

• Poll: Obama leads McCain among people who don't have pets

But what about those with Chia Pets?

72 Hour Countdown Begins Now!

Yahoo Headlines

Study: Drug in 'magic mushrooms' provides long-term benefit

This is one headline I am not even going to read, (mis) analyze, or debunk. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the glow it gives me.

Income Redistribution

In general, I think some income redistribution is a good thing, but I applaud the poll results where overall people are more worried about creating good conditions to earn income rather than fighting over some non-existent zero-sum pie.

That said, in age of superstar effects where the best in certain fields will earn much, much more than even closely skilled individuals, is this attitude going to continue?

UPDATE FOR A.J.

First of all there is a link to the poll in question. I should have included that in the original post.

You are right that its impossible to know what each person thinks when they respond to that poll question, but in general, I would read it as this:

Should we focus on making the economy grow, help it to create jobs, and so on and so forth, or should we focus on taxing higher income people more to spend more on transfer payments, social programs etc? (Basically do you want to grow the pie or just change how we cut up the original pie.)

Now it could get tricky with some policies that cut across that line. For example, maybe some form of universal health care would require more re-distributive taxes, but would also help create jobs and growth by de-linking employment with healthcare insurance, allowing greater mobility of labor and more entrepreneurship.

But I am not sure most people are thinking that deeply when answering this question.

Say, I could personally look at the question like this.

Financially, I am having a very, very bad year this year. Should I hope that the government tries to improve the overall economic situation so next year will be better or should I ask the government to take some money from my better off friends with stable salaries to give to me?

The Terminator gets it wrong

In this article he blows some of his own smoke.

But Schwarzenegger made more news by criticizing proposals for expanding offshore oil drilling, which have been backed by Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. John McCain.

"America is so addicted to oil that it will take years to wean ourselves from it," Schwarzenegger said. "To look for new ways to feed our addiction is not the answer."

Dumb metaphor. Oil is a natural resource, and a very dense source of energy. Its not an "addiction" to use the best raw material available. Like airplane makers are addicted to carbon fiber and aluminum, and if they could just kick the habit we could make planes from hemp and pine needles. Right now there are few alternatives to oil even at its current price.

"Anyone who tells you this would bring down gas prices anytime soon is blowing smoke," he added.

Yeah, sure Arnold. The price of oil includes expectations about future consumption and production. If you announce that the supply will be increased, even in 10 years time, some of that will be factored in the price. Also, there are oil fields that would not require 10 years to be on-line. Some were already developed but then capped after some areas of offshore production was banned.

Taiwanese Politics

I normally ignore politics here. I already have enough sanity issues with US politics that I don't need another issue to get me riled up in useless stupidity. However, I did read the Taipei Times at a McDonald's recently, and I was impressed to find these domestic political stories:

1. KMT spokespeople having to explain why the stock market is dropping like a stone.
Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

2. DPP rioting in the Legislative Yuan over the KMT executive branch "disrespect."
Meet the new opposition, same as the old opposition.

Random Clickings

If you hit "next blog" you will eventually find some interesting things. I found an Islamic religious site from Melaka. Scanning down I found this:


Well, that's a very intriguing collage. Here's my attempt at translation his post. (Note Bahasa Indonesia is a bit different from Melayu, so this is rough.)

Basically he explains this is a symbol of Satan linked with Black Metal and laments that some Muslims shamefully use it too.

Now, I know Bush being Satan incarnate is a given in many parts of the world, but Spiderman?

p.s. I'm assuming its a photoshop, but Bush has been filmed flipping the bird. Maybe he's into evil hand signals. He'll probably give "the shocker" to the White House press corps on his way out the door.

Famous Mullets in History

Benjamin Franklin.

He also wrote a dialogue with his gout. Just one more data point confirming my theory that those with gout are unusually talented people, pre-ordained by God to rule the universe.

Jesus, I just made that up, but decided to google "gout and intelligence" and the links tell me that there might indeed by some sort of connection. No wonder J-hole keeps claiming gout.

Bonus Link: You can get Benjamin Franklin's DNA and also see pictures of his tooth at this site.

Black Gold, Texas Tea

Oil companies and many lawmakers are pressing to open up more U.S. areas for drilling. But the industry is drilling on just a fraction of areas it already has access to.

Of the 90 million offshore acres the industry has leases to, mostly in the Gulf of Mexico, it is estimated that upwards of 70 million are not producing oil, according to both Democrats and oil-industry sources.

I better alert my Mom that the we could be producing oil in our backyard. That quarter acre is going to waste!

But the oil industry says it pays millions of dollars for these leases, and that it would not make sense to purposely leave the areas untapped.

Rather, years of exploration is required before drilling can even begin. In some cases, no oil is found on leases they hold. In others, drilling the wells and building the pipelines takes years. It is especially hard now that a worldwide boom in oil exploration has pushed up the prices - and timelines - for skilled workers and specialized equipment.

"No one is sitting on leases these days," said Rayola Dougher, senior economic advisor for the American Petroleum Institute. "Those making those assertions don't understand the bidding and leasing process."

It might make sense to sit on reserves when oil is US$ 12 / barrel. But at US$ 135, I think I'd be pumping like mad. The incentive to hoard would only be there if they think oil will continuously rise (a distinct possibility) or if they have a bottleneck in their ability to sell it somehow.

OPEC used to have trouble with this - they would deliberately try to limit supply, but then member nations would cheat by pumping extra. I think US oil companies don't control enough of the oil supply to attempt to limit the supply. They could simply free-ride on the OPEC controls instead.

Also the fact that older, previously unprofitable wells are now back in operation rather defeats the idea that they are hoarding reserves.

Bonus Link to this classic Onion article.

8:00 a.m. This Morning

"Daddy, daddy, I want to go to Costco."

Now, some may think that its bad for a three year old to love Costco so much that she's requesting trips on Monday morning.

But, its a great place to employ Pavlovian techniques to train kids learn to stand in line.

Plus if she eats enough samples, she's basically had a free meal.

Yahoo Headlines

"Unemployed turn to cosmetic surgery to boost their job prospects"


Because there will always be work for strippers.

I am not so sure about fat, middle-aged tranny strippers, so I'll keep my day job for now.

Usually its the right that makes dumb comics

But apparently it happens to Democrats now, too.

The following were #2 and #3 in my picks:

Nice touch of having the elephant be the danger. But what does the rather shabby bum hanging by the park bench represent? He's in the first scene as well.

Explain this Graph

Am I stupid, because I can't understand what I am looking at. Is it because I don't know what the Y axis is supposed to be?

How to segment your customers

I once read a great book about pricing. In the book they talked about 3 kinds of customers:

Loyal customers care more about quality and service than price.

Value customers weigh quality and service versus price.

Price Customers focus on price, though they may have some baseline for quality & service.

So, when you have a customer that has a sourcing program called Shop Around™ where do you think they belong in the taxonomy?

Yahoo News Headlines

Single-horned deer resurrects man's fascination with unicorns

Maybe that should read "13 year old girls' fascination with unicorns" instead of man's.

2008 Presidential Race

Chaon gave us his opinions of the presidential candidates today, and I have to agree with him in that no candidate is floating my boat either. In fact, it seems like both Obama and McCain can say something really good on one day, and then come back the next day with something that makes you wonder.

Putting national security issues aside, I am not sure that either candidate will be that different than the other, except on the margins. (This assumes that a lot of what Obama says on the campaign trail is not what he actually believes or will do in office - for example, he will bash NAFTA to get elected but then will quietly be free trade if elected. Not exactly a selling point for him, though.)

I guess I could get all excited about judges, but I am pro-abortion rights and pro-gay marriage. Plus, Karl helpfully pointed out that both McCain and Obama are against gay marriage - or say its a state issue so they won't make it a campaign issue. Fine by me, as the worst thing about gay marriage is having to hear about it, pro or con.

I will be leaning McCain this election just for the popcorn aspect, but I won't worry about an Obama victory, which at the very least would do some good for racial relations even if he ends up being Jimmy Carter II. On the other hand, McCain will only be in for 4 years and the worst he could do is pass a poor version of immigration amnesty.

That doesn't mean I will stop posting dorky photos of Obama. He's comedy gold sometimes.

AJ, anonymous comments are turned on...

please don't abuse the comments section with logic, facts, or rational thought.

Obama the Dork

I have to say he looks like he's right out of stuff white people like.

Going down the list, I even found a few more.

Note that I am a dork, too and sort of like this dorkiness of his. Its very humanizing.

Copper, 1998 to 2008 inflation adjusted

Okay, this is based from eyeballing the chart rather than exact numbers so it will be off.

April 15 1998 = US$ 6,000 (per metric ton)
April 15, 2008 = US$ 21,000 (per metric ton)

Now comes the inflation adjustment. Normally, I'd do such a simple calculation mentally, (perhaps resorting to the back of a napkin if I was extremely tired or hungover) but perhaps the CPI inflation calculator from the BLS will make it easier for lesser polymaths to check my work.

$6,000 is equivalent to $7,907.60 in 2008 dollars, thus the price has risen by around 266%, and at least for copper, Simon would lose his wager if he had made in 1998.

Actually, I think if I just plug in the 1998 prices, adjust for inflation, and then simply compare with the 2008 prices I could avoid squinting at the graphs.

UPDATE: Apparently for this bet, they used these metals to reflect depleting resources of all kind that would happen after the population bomb exploded. Ehrlich was predicting mass famine with hundreds of millions dying from lack of food. I am not so sure that high resource prices and food prices due to a rising middle class in India and China can really count towards validating this theory, especially since India was one of the places that was predicted to be slammed the hardest. I guess we could still get to the point where millions are dying because they cannot afford food, but since a lot of the poor people in the world are farmers, I'd predict urban riots and workers, not farmers upset over food prices.

It sucks to be dealing with higher prices, but if pulling a couple hundred million out of poverty in China and India is the cause, I am not sure we should be too worried. I'm also thinking of a secondary effect of bringing more of those brilliant minds in the developing world to solve these problems. Its not as if they just consume without producing anything. (That's my job, dammit!)

Convergence

In the old days of international trade, you were pretty happy when your customer asked you to quote for some product made in Germany, because you KNEW you would be cheaper.

Now it does not always work that way. I do have German customers getting better pricing from Northern China, alas not from me, but I also have German customers claiming they get better pricing from Germany! (This is in addition to American customers considering to have their production switched back to the US for sofas as the labor plus freight makes China pricy.)

Here's what I think happened:

1. Whatever is left being made in Germany now probably is being made by a very, very specialized firm that can be competitive.

2. Such firms can also make use of components made in Asia to lower their costs.

3. Meanwhile costs in Asia have risen, especially labor costs, but also raw materials and freight.

4. I probably have high overheads from having too many Taiwanese staff, but also maybe myself - its been on my mind that probably a Chinese person could do my job for me.

I suspect 2 & 3 are more important than 1 & 4.

So, it might be that days of cheap labor arbitrage are over - and that is a good thing for the world in general. But that won't pay my bills, so my customers keep asking about Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, etc., imagining there is still some room for cheap labor arbitrage. Well, there might be some room there, but mathematically it won't be much:

German labor is US$ 30 / hour.
China labor is US$ 5 / hour
Vietnamese labor is US$ 3 / hour

(These are all just made up.)

So, taking something that takes one hour made in Germany and having it made in China saves US$ 25.00.*

Now let's say you have a product being made in China and you want to move it to Vietnam. Will you save a lot of money? You only save US$ 2.00. And if Vietnam has any other costs that are higher than China's - say importing raw materials, lower productivity than China's, then you might save NOTHING.

And, importantly, if you are outsourcing the product instead of making it yourself, if the supplier knows the price in China, they could simply undercut by the smallest amount that makes you move your orders, say 10% or US$ 0.50.

So it seems to me that the days of labor arbitrage are becoming more limited, though people are now moving their wood factories to Cambodia and farther afield - which again should eventually lead to higher wages their and more economic convergence.

And that is a good thing. Just like today's rising food costs, if they do represent people eating better in China and India - well, that's a good thing right?

*Note that wages reflect productivity so its not really so clear you would capture all of the savings. If the labor market were completely competitive and we ceteris paribus product's labor intensiveness, management skill, capital available, etc. then making the product should actually cost the same in every country. But if that were the case no one would invest in China except perhaps for the local market. The idea of investing in low wage countries is that you can achieve some sort of advantage by using their cheap labor more efficiently and use the increased productivity to offer a better price.

Next project: what this means for trading companies' strategies!

Graphs for Karl

Price graphs from London Metal Exchange from 2003-2008.

Nickel


Tin


Copper

No your usual Spam E-Mail

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Lebanon as "US Backed"

Karl kindly informed me that since 2006, the USA has been providing heavily increased military aid to Lebanon (the Lebanese requested this during their battle with an Al Qaeda franchise in a Palestinean camp.)

So, obviously, the use of the words U.S. backed makes much more sense. Mea culpa.

I checked back on previous US military assistance to Lebanon - it was running about US$ 38 million per year steadily in 2004 and 2005. (This probably includes a whole grab bag of stuff including drug war, etc.)

I am wondering if that would still qualify as "U.S. backed." I don't think so.

During and after the 2006 battle, the UAE and other Arab countries also provided aid, including helicopters. There's an even more detailed list here of what they got.

They apparently got 45 tanks from Belgium, but they probably bribed the journalist not to use the phrase "Belgian-backed" as that would destroy confidence.

Its also interesting to note that the one article mentioned that arm sales/assistance for the West was hampered before because of possible Syrian infiltration of the Lebanese military. Its only recently they could even become "US-backed" because before they were "Syrian-occupied."

Currency Markets

Well, I just started buying dollars now.* Got rid of my NZD. It was hard because they had a nice interest rate (6.3%), but all good things must end. I'm looking at getting out of some of my Euros as well. This might all be temporary - I may get back in later. Or buy a house in the States.

But how about that RMB? Its supposed to be the only "one-way bet" out there.

But does that flattening at the end there mean maybe its time to get out of the RMB? Or is that flattening to be compared to other currencies weakening, which then looks like the RMB would be a good place to park money for a while if you didn't want dollars?

*OKAY - I need to make a major correction. I sold my NZD and bought NTD. I originally bought them with NTD and decided to stick with that currency because I think there might be a strengthening of the NT$ at some point - like if Ma does a deal with China.

But I've been predicting that for years. We did hit NT$ 30 = US$1 .00 a couple of weeks ago, but it didn't hold up.

Gay Marriage again to be an election issue

Oh, God.

I guess the silver lining is that the jokes and funny photos are better than anything for abortion.

For the record, I'm okay with gay marriage, with polygamy even, and even more for the state not doing marriages at all but offering civil unions come one and come all. Let the churches handle marriages.

I'm proudly married in the civil tradition without a church wedding and plan to pass this tradition on to my daughter. No - its not about the 50k I'd have to spend on a "real" wedding. Its the principle! Look, I'll pony up some dough for some pizzas and a keg if that makes you happy, honey, but the groom pays for the DJ, dammmit. (Remember at Kev's wedding how the iPod played on the sound system was as good as the band?)

I'm not even sure I can be against bestiality. I mean, we already eat animals, we already hunt animals, we already ride animals and use animals to do work for us. We even tear the skin off their flesh and wear it after some curing. Maybe the cow would like a little loving before we stun it with an electric prod and then slaughter it for consumption.

Schedule:

China: May 18 - May 30

Taiwan: July 10 - August 16 (Wife and daughter going to America for re-education camp. Stepson and me left behind. I'm a sinner so that seems right. Karl, you can schedule the A&A games accordingly)

Business Climate

Maybe its just my industry or my shitty suppliers, but there is a very serious malaise going on. Suppliers are lethargic. Service is severely sub-par with lengthy waiting periods for samples, prices, and answers to basic questions. Its like they don't want to do business anymore.

I was just reading somewhere that the massive cost increases in raw materials have not yet really been showing up in consumer prices. I think this may be the cause of the malaise. Who wants to quote for items that won't make any money?

I have been fighting bloody skirmishes with my customers for the past 2 months about pricing. I am seeing some signs of capitulation though...they keep asking me if I should be going to Indonesia or Thailand to source products. I haven't had the heart to tell them that China is the leader - that when China's prices go up, other countries aren't rushing out to quote lower prices, but breaking out the cheap champagne and rejoicing that they might get to survive now that the China Price isn't below raw material cost anymore.

(I could be wrong. Maybe Thailand is cheap. Maybe a long business trip there is in order? I bet I could stay at some nice resort hotel and still get some work done.)

On the other hand, I have been losing a lot of the skirmishing, because some people haven't been passing on their added costs. I think that can't last forever though.

Spitzer II

They got the party affiliation right there in the first paragraph. Progress!

He was elected on an anti-corruption plank, but had "a sexual harassment investigation in his office and [an] extramarital affair."

and of course the obligatory: at least his office was sexually harassing a woman.

This pretty much guarantees that we will have a gay Republican scandal within the next two weeks. Its like dueling banjos!

Yahoo News - Lebanon

BEIRUT, Lebanon - The Lebanese army expanded its troop deployment to several tense areas around the country Tuesday, saying its soldiers would use force if needed to impose order after clashes between the U.S.-backed government and Hezbollah-led opposition.

The Lebanese government is "U.S.-backed" in the same way that France's government is "U.S. backed" - its the legitimate government of a country. Its also "backed" by a lot of Arab countries excepting Syria. Its not some US puppet. Oh, and of course Hezbollah is "backed" by Iran and Syria - maybe that should have been mentioned in the first paragraph instead of the "U.S. backed" business.

President Bush expressed his support for the Lebanese army on Monday during an interview with Al-Arabiya television, saying Washington would continue to supply and train the country's forces.

"We want to make them better so they can respond," Bush said.

I guess that's what they mean by "U.S. backed."

The president confirmed that the U.S. military has moved the destroyer USS Cole off the coast of Lebanon but said it was "part of a routine training mission that had been scheduled a long time before."

USS Cole: I hope you are luckier this time.

From the wikipedia article on Hezbollah:

Hezbollah has been one the main parties of March 8 Alliance since polarization of political atmosphere of Lebanon in March 2005. Although Hezbollah had joined the new government in 2005, it remained staunchly opposed to the March 14 Alliance.

I see they have room left to book March 9 - 13 Alliances as well. Plan your holiday accordingly.

Yahoo News

When I see the name "Coconut Road Interchange" I just don't associate it with Alaska.

So I think its unnatural that a Florida real-estate developer should raise funds for a politician from Alaska, Don Young (R-Alaska), who then puts an earmark into a bill after its already finished to pay for said Coconut Road Interchange.

Wouldn't it be poetic justice if instead of naming the Bridge to Nowhere after the Senator, it was named the Coconut Bridge? (That's poetic justice in addition to the normal justice, too, please.)

Maybe lots of politicians fund-raise outside their own states, but Alaska/Florida is quite a doozy. Heck, if he did this for Hawaii, he could at least claim he has to help counter-act the lower-48 bias in uhhhhhh, connectivity to other states?

Found cleaning out my desk

Norton Anti-Virus 2000

Do you think loading up 8 years worth of virus updates would take a long time?

Haitians & Taiwanese & Americans, too

Apparently some Haitians believe bringing exiled Pres. Aristide back to power will immediately alleviate their economic situation.

"When Aristide was around we found food, we had jobs," said Manouchak Louis, who is 21 and unemployed. "If he comes back the country will change."

Does this sound familiar?

Many people in Taiwan, my wife included, are convinced that Pres. Ma will be able to do the same. I'm sure there are some folks in the U.S. who think that a Clinton in the White House will bring back the glory of the 1990's economy (despite the fact the current unemployment rates during this quasi-recession is actually lower than it was in the 90's.)

I am very skeptical of these claims that the president of any free market nation can truly affect their economies for the better, except at the margins. Making the economy worse off is probably much easier to do - just nationalize some industries, raise some taxes, and develop oodles of red tape. But it is very interesting to see how people from very different cultures still have this need to personify their economic problems or successes as being determined by one man at the top.

Oh, and my prediction for Haiti would be that there won't be any magical change in that country's plight even if Jesus himself were running it.

Perhaps turning sugar cane into ethanol for export would be the best chance.

Chinese Currency Manipulation

(Hillary) said President George W. Bush had failed to enforce trade laws and not challenged China's currency "manipulation."

...

China, according to Obama, had unfairly tilted the playing field by "dumping goods into our market," violating intellectual property rights, exporting unsafe toys and "grossly undervaluing" its currency.


Psssst, China, I think you're doing it wrong.

Now technically, I guess you could argue they are manipulating their currency by not letting it strengthen even faster. And you could claim the Yuan is still "grossly undervalued." But I think the appreciation of the Yuan (described as a "one way bet" by some guy on Bloomberg TV) is just not being covered in the US, so the candidates can keep saying this stuff.

p.s. I would bet my soul that McCain has said something in a similar vein within the past few months, but its not in the article I just read.

Red A's Spring Offensive - Pacific Theater

China - April 21 - 28
California - April 28 - May 08
Taiwan - May 09 - 12
China - May 12 - 20+

Seriously, this has to stop. And its not as if all this traveling is producing tons of business.

Best news I have heard all year: After raw material prices have risen by 20% across the board, I have now been told steel prices will rise by another 20% in May.

/sarcasm off

Curiousity Killed the Cat

I was using Windows and in the help pull-down menu there was an interesting option:

"Is this copy of Windows legal?"

I don't know what kind of dumb ass would actually click on that. My copy of Windows is legal, but I would never click that, mainly because I don't trust Microsoft enough that it wouldn't decide that my copy was actually illegal, shut down my computer, and leave me high and dry.

I religiously buy authentic software now even when the computer vendor is willing to "help me out" and might actually be interested to find out if my version is legal, but I don't have much confidence in software providers. After experiencing such excitement as having to rollback to an older driver to be able to use the internet, or iTunes updating my Ipod's software and making it unusable right before a big trip, I have a healthy skepticism.

For my new work computer, on the advice of the store, I bought Vistas bundled, but actually installed the old XP. I'm hoping to be able to keep this up and avoid Vistas.

Question: Can I get a Blackberry (with service) in Taiwan? You know, just to complete the annihilation of my private life?

Pennsylvania Rifle

Resolved from Hanover Township, Lancaster County, June 4, 1774; that in the event Great Britain attempting to force unjust laws upon us by the strength of arms, our cause we leave to heaven and to our rifles.

Competition from China and India had already made poor rural people cling to their guns and religion in 1774. Who'd have thunk it!

At the Breakfast Shop

DIALOGUE:

Cook: Is he a German?

Lao Ban: No, he's a Canadian.

Me: Actually, I am an American.

Cook: I thought you were German because you always wear Birkenstocks.

Me: I wear them because they are comfortable.

Cook: I have a pair too. They are expensive but worth it.

ANALYSIS:

1. Me calling Rye a Nazi because he wore Birks is not that far off from this situation where Birk-wearing is associated with Germaness....(Germanity? Germanicity?) Except I was joking.

2. The cook owns a pair of Birkenstocks, too. By her own logic, does that mean she is German?

3. I also was wearing a Nike shirt. Why didn't she focus on that and correctly surmise I am an American?

4. Taiwan must have a lot of Canadians if people's second guess for nationality after German is Canadian. Second time this has happened (asking/assuming Canadian citizenship.) Maybe its the combination of Nike shirts and German sandals?

Quasi-Karl Style Post

I was writing a letter today and had to explain a kind of part used in the assembly of some kids furniture. The word "shim" popped into my mind, but before I used it in the letter, I did a brief wikipedia search to make sure I wasn't using the wrong word.

Turns out the word "shim" meant what I thought, but it also had about a million other usages. Here are some of the weirder ones:

Fantasy

A drug harvested by refining fairy dust as extracted from enslaved fairies who are on mind-control drugs. Shim is an upper, with similar properties to drugs such as cocaine or ecstacy, and has the physical appearance of a pile of glitter.

Luthiery

In luthiery shims made of various materials are often used to adjust neck alignment.

(Not a weird usage of the word shim, but I had no idea what Luthiery meant.)

Todd Gilbert

A transvestite that this man usually targets in his various journeys while assigned to an US Navy ship located in the Seventh Fleet. Shim is slang for "She-Him."

Alternative Theory on Obama

Some people think Obama appears unpatriotic in this photo, but might I suggest an alternative theory?

Dude was trying to hide a boner.

Maybe he's so patriotic that the national anthem gets him hard.

I remember some book I read in Jr. High where the main character always carried a text book around to hide his awkward boners. Which is good advice when you're 15 and your hormones make that happen every time the wind blows.

I'd suggest saltpeter tablets for Sen. Obama.

p.s. One thing I like about Obama is that he looks like a dork. Who else but a dork would stand there with their hands clasped over their crotch area?

UPDATE:

Upon reflection, I have yet another theory. Obama thinks he's playing soccer and is forming a wall to block a penalty kick. Really, Obama should be warning Richardson to protect his family jewels. And maybe Hillary, too.

Earth Day vs. Daylight Savings

I happened to be in a Hilton hotel in Amsterdam for both Earth Day and for the change to daylight savings time there.

For Earth Day, the hotel turned off all of their public lighting for one hour from 8:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. They also held a candle-light reception in the lobby and lit about 100 lanterns to light up the front of the hotel.

Now, I already have problems with the idea that turning off your lights for one hour will do anything to help the Earth. The power plants have to keep a minimum amount of load running, so I doubt we can "save" much electricity by everyone turning off their lights at one time. But when you go out and buy hundreds of candles and metal lanterns, you probably just used more electricity and raw materials than just keeping your normal lights running, not to mention I suspect candles produce greenhouse gases (though I am less worried about global warming now that more evidence is coming out against it being man-made or even a real issue in the long run.) They also had to print up hundreds of color fliers to advise their guests of the plan.

Daylight savings, however, might actually lead to a more permanent reduction in energy use, though that is debatable according the wiki link.

I think there might be even better ways for a hotel to help the environment, like providing free bicycles which would be especially effective in Holland where bike lanes are everywhere. Or how about offering complementary erotic massages, which would convince a lot of guests to turn in at an earlier hour and save on that precious electricity? I'm sure they could afford to offer these for free since they charge € 8.00 for a Budweiser and € 20.00 for an internet connection.

Did I mention the special Soap Menu, where you can order the soap of your choice for only € 17.50 per bar? Obviously some people in this world are making a lot of money or can bill their employers for such things.