Facebook Status Wars

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not to make fun of a serious situation....oh hell, yes I am making fun of this:

 

Beer count: Red A has gone 15 minutes without a beer. Please donate your facebook status to rectify this alarming situation

If China invaded Taiwan

What would be the media narrative?

A. Would Taiwan get sympathetic coverage like Kuwait being invaded by Iraq ala 1990?

B. Or would it be sympathetic, but more like Chechenya being invaded by Russia (twice) with some general unease about the tactics used, "but, hey, what can we do about it when its a part of Russia?"

C. Or would China be smart enough to make it look like Georgia-Russia 2008 or Gaza/Israel - war is very, very bad, but those crazy Taiwanese had it coming?

Important points to consider:

Taiwan is a democracy. China is not. That could be helpful.

The media will want access to China in the future and might consider that in their reporting.

International law is technically on China's side.

Europeans are far away from Asia and sell a lot of stuff to China.

What else am I missing?

My predicition would be a mixture of B & C for most international media. Any A style coverage will be from some outlets in the American press and possibly Japanese press.

China will definitely have some sort of excuse for its "intervention" and probably even an "invitation to restore order" from pro-unification elements.  (How about rioting in Taiwan over party-party unification talks in China in the waning days of a Ma administration that allows KMT old guard to ask for help "to restore order" from China?) 

Since the international media probably doesn't have strong feelings about Taiwan (the initial panic will be why Thailand is being attacked by amphibious invasion and then a mad scramble to find Taiwan on their globe) they will probably try to be neutral in their reporting, like in the Georgia example. This will include dutifully reminding viewers that according to the UN, Taiwan is part of China, etc., etc. They will be especially careful in reporting on the Taiwan side, other than the pyrotechnics, because they know that China could cut access to their networks at any time.

Is that too pessimistic?

CPSIA of 2008

The Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act of 2008 designed to make children's products safer by mandating extensive product testing is starting to take effect. Apparently, boutique stores and small producers in the USA are going  out of business because this law requires every material used in a children's product to be tested for lead along with a battery of other tests. 

For China, its less of a problem because of the large volume of products being made means testing charges are not that big and can be passed on to the customers in some cases.

For example, the cost to test our chalk products will be around US$ 2,0000. That's a big deal if you make 300 pcs per year, but less so if you make 300,000 pcs per year.

Now for the stupidity of this law. This law is very stringent and the lawyers must be pretty smug that they have increased penalties and are forcing factories to test their products for even more stuff than before.

Unfortunately, they have kept the same system of compliance as before, which is you test your product once, and then show the certificate when you ship your orders to "prove" you are compliant. So, any unscrupulous company simply makes one sample with safe materials that will pass the testing, and then uses the certificate to ship container after container of unsafe product. 

Oh, but maybe the government in the US will be randomly testing stuff on the store shelves! Yes, and those small factories in China who were doing the lead painting don't worry about that because they will have been paid already and will simply abscond if they are caught. I am not even sure if they really will do more random testing in the retail stores - it wasn't included in the law I read (HR 4040)

I suspect all of the big toy companies are now testing the products BEFORE shipment is made (like they should have been doing on a random basis before the whole crisis.) I suspect they started doing that within one week of the first problems with lead on toys, though probably only on materials that can actually have lead in them.

The government of course simply mandates that EVERYTHING has to be tested...organic cotton? Test it for lead! Injection molded plastic? Test it for lead? Zippers? Test them too! Lead? Test it for lead! 

And test it for phalathates! Which are plastic softeners but if you really want to comply you will test your metal parts for plastic softeners.

I can understand the politicians' predicament though - voters/consumers screaming for action means a hurried up law must be passed.  Lest anyone get the wrong idea, I am not against testing, regulation, etc., I just wish it could have been implemented better. I would prefer more on the actual enforcement side with perhaps less mandatory testing of every component. The government is already backing down in this manner by excluding some products from testing - like products made from raw wood, etc.

Bonus link: This law also will sponsor a study as follows:

Sec. 107. Study of preventable injuries and deaths in minority children related to consumer products.

Because we all know that minority children play with their toys in very different manners than white kids.

Bankruptcy Pricing in China II

One of our oldest suppliers sold his factory last year. He wanted to retire. 

He sold the equipment and the business, but rented the factory building to the new owner.  He gave him technical help and brought along all the old customers. Its  a simple, profitable business and the new owner could have paid back his investment in one year, and made around US$ 60-100k profit per year thereafter. 

Instead, the new owner took all accounts receivable and used them to pay for the machinery, etc. The new owner then decided to not pay any of his material suppliers. He has attempted to raise prices 30-40% (when material prices are falling!) We think he also borrowed money from banks against the machinery, too. Now the company is basically bankrupt.

I have to wonder if this was his plan all along.

More Thoughts US Healthcare System

As noted in a comment by Karl, its not exactly a free market for healthcare when 60% of revenue for a hospital group come from Medicare and Medicaid, and the hospital subsidizes those with the remaining 40% of revenue from the private sector.

I guess its still a free market in the sense that there are competing hospitals, choice for patients, etc. but the payment structure implies that its being distorted quite a lot.

Assuming the case of the non-profit hospital group in the podcast is typical of the entire system, I have the following thoughts:

1. If we think the present system is bad, why are most of the popular reforms being considered designed around extending the government payment system rather than moving more towards a freer market? 

2. If people are worried about the rising cost of healthcare, how is moving the payment more and more to the government side going to reduce costs when the private 40% is already having to subsidize the medicare and medicaid portion? I think those subsidized costs will have to re-appear somewhere if it were 100% government, e.g. single payer. 

This suggests to me that any savings will be elusive.

Slogan Contest

War on Poverty...

War on Cancer...

War on Drugs...

War on Terror...

now VP Joe Biden says "We are at war" in regards to the economy.

But we can't call it a "War on the Economy" because that would mean we would start to blow up factories and stores. (Though some people want to bulldoze excess houses to reduce the stock of unsold homes.)

I guess "War on Recession" would be the boring choice. Any better ones?

Animal Blogging done right...

Fuck You Penguin

Now that is a blog name.

Another Explanation of the Fed's actions...

but with cooler graphics.

Healthcare in the USA

I was listening to a podcast with the CEO of a non-profit chain of hospitals in the Midwest.

He was explaining the price structure of healthcare as follows (paraphrased):

About 60% of their revenue comes from Medicare and Medicaid.

The other 40% comes from private insurers, HMO's, etc.

Because the Medicare and Medicaid prices are fixed by government fiat, they have to increase the cost of care to the 40% of private coverage to subsidize it. Then because the private companies keep asking for discounts, they mark-up the "book" price, too. (Note to customers, we do this too. If you are known for cutting 5%, I just add 5% for you to cut. If you are known to add all sorts of extra costs on, I pad my pricing.)

My reaction to this is that I guess we are already very close to national healthcare when 60% of revenue at a hospital comes from the state. In fact, I wonder if all of those "uninsured" people we hear about simply don't know to fill out the paperwork for Medicaid or SCHIP or whatever.

What Bernanke is trying to do...

http://www.scrivener.net/2008/12/mvpq-in-pictures.html

I think this is a very good explanation of what Bernanke is trying to do.

It also begs the question of what happens when V starts to move again...but with increased M still in the system... we will either get increase pricing, i.e. inflation, or have to reduce M via large interest rate hikes.

I think increased inflation may actually be the politically easier choice because America has lots of debt. That would mean a weaker dollar.

If interest rates have to go sky high to reduce M, then we would see a much stronher dollar.

The cost of environmental regulation

California has imposed strict new rules on formaldehyde emissions from engineered woods (that's plywood, particle board, or medium-density fibreboard to you.)

These regulations essentially require manufacturers to buy new machines to meet the regulations and then get certified. For a while, only one or two board suppliers in China were certified as the new machinery costs a few hundred thousand US dollars, so you could not get accurate pricing for certified boards at the time.

During this period, customers would ask us if we were compliant and after checking out the requirements, it seemed as if E1 grade boards used for Europe would comply with the emissions aspect of the regulations, but not the paperwork aspect. That is to say an E1 grade board would pass the California emissions test, but since it was not "certified" by a third party, it would not have the right paperwork.

We figured using E1 grade boards would be a good approximation for pricing purposes. After all, how much could that "paperwork" represent as additional cost? 

Looking at a quotation today for some furniture, the difference between using E1 grade MDF and California CARB-compliant MDF was about 5 - 10% at the FOB level for piece of furniture. It would add about US$ 15 - 20 to the retail price of a coffee table.

Keep in mind that E1 MDF absolutely complies with the actual emissions requirement. Its not that the California regulation is stricter. So here is my conclusion:

1. The supply of the California compliant boards is not yet large enough to match demand, hence the higher price which should fall closer to E1 grade pricing as more manfacturers come on board. (Note that E1 grade boards are more expensive than E2 grade, so there will still be some cost issues.)

2. The paperwork aspect is actually expensive.  (I still don't get why you have to buy new machines if E1 will pass the testing requirement. Maybe the certifying companies are all American and require different machinery to comply. Who knows.)

Maybe these formaldehyde emissions are really dangerous and need to be regulated, but it sure seems wasteful to not just have adopted the European E1 standard.

I would suggest that the important part of these regulations should be the monitoring of actual shipments for compliance. I have heard too many stories where the sample is made with E1 boards to send out for testing, but the actual shipment is made using E2 boards. Imagine trying to be honest and competing against companies that did that!

Chhhhhhanges...

First customer to get into trouble so far now looks like they're being bought out. 

New boss = bad news for suppliers usually.

So, I better start thinking about some new career/life paths, seriously.

1. I am thinking about something related to Indonesian studies. Maybe become an expert on the Indonesian military - supposedly there are very few experts at all on this. Living in Washington DC...would that be good or bad?

2. I'd like to live in Spokane, Washington. I don't know what I would do there, but I like dry climates with evergreen forests.

3. Half-seriously I was thinking of becoming a consultant to Chinese factories, but the ones who need help are probably too cheap to pay anything.

Maybe I'd better fire up the old resume...went looking for it and could not find it. Man, it will be hard to write one from scratch at my advanced age.

Better start begging for reference letters now.

Yahoo Headline?

Oligarchs Ask for Bailout

Autarkists deny them assistance. "Take care of it youself."

Patriarchs suggest using their allowance. "Bankruptcy builds character!"

Theocrats pray for manna from heaven. "Please God, but make it in the form of treasury bonds instead of weird bread."

...I am sure there are more of  these....

R.I.P. Danny Getz

I was complaining a while back about old friends who did not have any internet prescence and jokingly hoped they hadn't died in a car accident. 

Well, when I was bored in China, I kept looking people up, and yeah, I found one of my friends had died of heart disease at the age of 36. I found him via his memorial lecture series web page. 

He ended up specializing in Indonesia studies, married a local girl, and had two daughters.

That hits a little close to home. That could have easily been my life path.

Ironically, we met while studying in the Indonesian city of Malang, which literally means "bad luck."

R.I.P. Danny

From My Spam Catcher

CQ-1A-3  Genuine Leather Safety Suitcase

Can hold over USD1.5 million with 30KV electric shock

Dear Sirs,

 

This is greeting from Yantai Qinglu Automation Co., Ltd China!

 

We would like to introduce our new developed product — CQ-1A-3 Safety Suitcase  Large-capacity Super Safety Suitcase to you, which is designed for schleping or transfering big amount of cash and valuables. This product has protection settings against losing, stealing, robbing.

 

The dimension of  CQ-1A-3 Safety Suitcase is 47*35*18 cm, it's big enough to put USD 1.5 million of cash in it. So it's suitable for banking, financial and other  related use. The most remarkable character of the product is the function of high voltage shock spread all over the surface of the suitcase. This function makes the suitcase effective in protection and counterattack. Although the electric pulse voltage is more than 30KV, the current Amps and the shocking energy are very small, it doesn't hurt one's health. You don't have to worry about that. 

I added the red highlight to the word "schleping." 

2008 Financials....

1. Apparently, Everbody's not working for my week-end. Alas, I have been working for their's instead. I hope they have been enjoying them to the fullest - like vodka jello shots and snowboarding on Kilimanjaro. If they've been merely sleeping and watching Korean soap operas, I will begin to question the wisdom of the capitalist system.

2. Speaking of living vicariously....shouldn't Bread be telling us he's in Ascension and hanging with the President's daughter and her nasty, nasty friends?

3. I now feel disappointed when old flames cannot be found on the internet. Jesus Christ, junkies in jail have an internet presence, so where the fuck are you Melissa? (If you died in a tragic car accident prior to 2002, I will excuse you.)

4. I have visited about 10 factories in China so far. Some are semi-busy. Most are dead. Some are ghost towns. Message to Chinese government: maybe importing some US products instead of mindlessly buying our T-Bills would have been the wiser course? The only good news is that everyone still hates WalMart here.

 

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!

Yahoo's homepage featured a large photo of Tina Fey - and her facial scar!

Please, please, please let me keep my fantasies about my eye candy being unbelievably perfect.

No need to talk about the scarring, stretch marks, or boob jobs.

Make up, airbrushing, and photoshop exist to make the world a better place.

If entertainment news can't be completely superficial, what hope for humanity?

This is worse than when it came out that Elizabeth Hurley is frigid.

Confessions of a Capitalist

On Friday evenings, while the rest of humanity happily sings "Everybody's working for the weekend" we secretly sing "Everybody's working for MY weekend."

Buuuhawhhhhahhawhhahhhhaaaa.

Note: I can only imagine what Paulson secretly sings on Friday nights. Gawd.

Red A behind the Red Curtain

I'm drinking a cold Samuel Adam Boston Lager I scored at HK airport's 7-11. For a lager its excellent, really tastes like an ale.

Had some Peking Duck, dumplings, and sweet and sour pork.

I'm down-loading Hot Spot Shield, which supposedly let's you change your IP and avoid the Great Firewall.

Not bad for being in China.

Walking back from dinner there was this pretty young woman pumping up her bicycle tire. Man, if I was single that would have been an easy target..."Excuse me, can I help you with that?"

But since I am a bearded pudgy foreigner who is married, I let her do her own pumping.

Haram

Haram means "forbidden" and refers to things Muslims can't eat/do, etc.

Now, at our house, we are taking a sort of "don't ask, don't tell" policy with regards to pork-related products and the Nanny because its sometimes hard to know what Taiwanese cooks are throwing into the food you buy.

But definitely, bacon whiskey would be haram. Though, technically if a Muslim has no other choice they can eat/drink haram items. (Because suicide by starvation is a greater sin.)

If I were a Billionaire

Now with corrected grammar!

...Karl has been promoted to Director of Grinding, Tapping, and Horizontal Boring. He did such a good job at Faggoting that we feel he needs to be cross-trained so as to be bi-functional. And, uhhhhhh, synergy. Yes, there will be some synergy somewhere. Trust me.

Now is a great time to be a cocky motherfucker. For example, I was reading a very instructive article at the Wall Street Journal counseling me to wait until February to do anything stock-market related. So, do you think I did that? NOOOOOOO. I went and bought some more stocks.

I am going to blame this on the Nite Ranger effect.

That wraps up this meeting. Oh, I almost forgot to welcome a prospoective new member who is visiting us at "if I were a Billionaire." A big welcome for Warren Buffet.

Its always sort of bittersweet when we gain another member because that means somebody lost enough money to have to start using the conditional tense in relation to their Billionaire status. We're here for you Warren.

If I was a Billionaire...

I would open a big metalworking plant and hire Karl.

He'd be Director of Faggoting.

Maybe Michael Schumacher could be my Director of Lapping?

Today's waste of time inspired by bevel, chamfer, and fillet.

Also...

Interested in how to read weld instructions on technical drawings?

p.s. You can tell because I am learning these terms that one of our products has some problems with how it is welded.

Here is my sum total experience with welding:

Avoid welding on any product wherever possible because factory welders seem to rejoice in doing crappy work that is discovered a few months later.

Seriously, invest in that die-cast tooling instead. Machines don't have hangovers, chew betel nut, or daydream about Jessica Alba.

Now, I am sure someone will tell me that there is some machine that can quality check welds...

Anthromorphism

So, one good side effect of the construction of the Footbridge to Nowhere is that my daughter can see the men and machines working out the window, including a cute little blue backhoe.

We have also been watching the construction of an apartment building about a block away, and she also likes the yellow steam shovel that they are using (CAT brand by the way.)

So yesterday she informed me that "The blue backhoe is a boy. And the yellow one is a girl."

Maybe they will get married and have one of those really tiny ones called Bobcats?

Placebos

I think I actually did not post this story about the use of placebos by US doctors.

Survey: Half of US doctors use placebo treatments

LONDON -- About half of American doctors in a new survey say they regularly give patients placebo treatments - usually drugs or vitamins that won't really help their condition. And many of these doctors are not honest with their patients about what they are doing, the survey found.

Most doctors used actual medicines as a placebo treatment: 41 percent used painkillers, 38 percent used vitamins, 13 percent used antibiotics, 13 percent used sedatives, 3 percent used saline injections, and 2 percent used sugar pills.

My wife's doctor uses homeopathic pills. I guess he's just keeping up with Western practices.

Smaller studies done elsewhere, including Britain, Denmark and Sweden, have found similar results.

So nationalized healthcare also has this "problem" too.

In fact, Karl mentioned that since placebos and alternative medicines are cheaper than real medicine, they help bring costs down. But that only works if the homeopathic placebos don't cost NT$ 1,500 / treatment and you "need" 3 treatments per week.

Big Brother Society

People worry that the spread of CCTV cameras will erode our civil liberties, and while that could be true, sometimes the opposite occurs. This video led to the official's firing.

Ahhhhh, that feels better.

I cleaned up all of the election stuff.

All new visuals and links designed to make you feel good*, no matter what your political persuasion.

*Assuming you like beer and women. If you're a wine-drinking gay male, then you may be disappointed. So, to appease those types, please click the links below:

LINK FOR GAY MALES WHO DRINK WINE.

...
...
...
...

OMG! KARL, YOU CLICKED THOSE LINKS! YOU'RE GAY!

Corporal Punishment

Taiwanese culture tends to be more accepting of corporal punishment for children than American culture. Bad test results can result in actual lashing in addition to a tongue lashing.

My wife is a big fan of such tactics, but has been trying to not use them so much with our daughter.

So, today, when our daughter was being "bu guai" and not taking her nap, she did something really innovative.

She threatened my daughter's stuffed animal with violence.

"If you don't go to sleep, I am going to beat Minnie Mouse!"

"No, Mom! Don't beat Minnie Mouse!"

Thanks Disney.

Yahoo Headlines

U.S. doctors regularly prescribe placebo pills, survey finds

So, maybe the homeopathic meds my wife is taking aren't so bad.

And, Karl, this is definitely a way to save on costs...sugar pills are much cheaper than actual medicine.

Gmail

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Canada Praisin'

Because I am often accused of Canada bashing, I have to praise our glorious northern neighbors once in a while, too. Just to provide some sort of fig leaf.

This is from an interesting Washington Post editorial.

Government support for housing was well-intentioned: Homeownership is a worthy goal. But when government favors a particular economic activity, however validly, it must seek countervailing control to ensure the sustainable use of public resources. This is why banks must meet capital requirements in return for federal deposit insurance. Congress did not apply this sound principle to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; they were allowed to engage in profitable but increasingly risky activities with an implicit government guarantee. The result was that taxpayers had to assume more than $5 trillion of their obligations. Contrast U.S. experience with that of Canada, where there is no mortgage interest deduction and the law requires insurance on any mortgage over 80 percent of a home's purchase price. Delinquency rates at Canada's seven largest banks are near historic lows.

That's not faint praise coming from the Washington Post where the editors still remember those dastardly Canadians hordes that burned down our White House in 1814. Though apparently we burned down their parliament building first. Both actions would probably get 90% approval ratings nowadays.

High Speed Rail

California has a ballot measure for a high speed rail system linking up SF, Sacramento, LA and San Diego. The price tag is $40 billion. Pretty expensive, which is maybe why there are not many private companies doing HSR on their own.

Its interesting to note that Taiwan's HSR cost US$ 15 billion for about 200 miles of track. Taiwan had massive cost overruns and did not run nearly as many passengers as they initially claimed, so the critics of the CA plan are probably correct that it will actually cost more and not be as busy as envisioned, but despite that, the Taiwan system is supposedly profitable.

The logo for the California HSR looked sort of familiar...so either Obama will support the HSR network, or sue them for copyright violation.







Of course, not just California is interested in high speed rail...Texas is too. Their proposed network is called the T-Bone. That is not a joke.

Why can't we drive our cars onto the high speed rail and then drive them off when we arrive ala the French "motorail" concept?

Fiscal Stimulus

Unleashing my inner state planner, if I were in charge of a fiscal stimulus plan now, I would not suggest a tax cut (which probably would not work so well in these times as it would be more likely to be saved or used against debt than spent.) I would suggest doing the following:

1. Build Nuclear Power Plants: Creates temporary construction demand, and longer-term demand for engineers and technicians that cannot be outsourced to India. Reduces dependence on foreign oil to help national security. No greenhouse gas emissions. Additional power actually needed in many states and potential for increase in demand as electric cars like the Volt start coming out in 2010.

2. Fix the energy grid in general. Consider building that transmission line from the midwest to east and west coasts that Boone Pickens wants.

3. Repair the highways. At least in California, these rather suck now.

4. Build a High speed rail network, complete with plush seating and fully-stocked bars in the coaches. Because every fiscal stimulus needs a rail-based boondoggle.

5. Build a space elevator. I don't care if we don't have the technology. I want a god-damn space elevator. We should be able to ride it up to a revolving zero-G restaurant, laughing at the Chinese Taikonauts in their little shuttle doing their little space walks we see on the way.

UPDATE:

California has a ballot measure for a high speed rail system linking up SF, Sacramento, LA and San Diego. The price tag is $40 billion. Pretty expensive, which is maybe why there are not many private companies doing HSR on their own.

Its interesting to note that Taiwan's HSR cost US$ 15 billion for about 200 miles of track. Taiwan had massive cost overruns and did not run nearly as many passengers as they initially claimed, so the critics of the CA plan are probably correct that it will actually cost more and not be as busy as envisioned, but despite that, the Taiwan system is supposedly profitable.

The logo for the California HSR looked sort of familiar...so either Obama will support the HSR network, or sue them for copyright violation.







Also, a small factoid from the wikipedia article on Taiwan's HSR says they are still employing about 30+ foreign drivers. Sacre Bleu! There must be some bar in Taipei that sells a lot of wine and crepes right before the trains run.

Seriously Weird

I went up to the google search button on my browser's tool bar and typed in "Nite Ranger."

I just did it for no reason, subconsciously.

Google's first hit was for a "Sister Christian" video on Youtube, and it sort of shocked me out of my stupor.

"Huh, why did I google that?"

It was like some tiny rebellious part of my brain slipped in a command to my fingers.

It must be the part of my brain that is stuck in the 80's and thinks Night Ranger is Nite Ranger.

Maybe I have ADD in which case maybe a prescription of Ritalin might help, or this is something that happens to other people, too.

Notes from this Week End

A. My Daughter Turned 4 Years Old.

She got some sweet birthday presents, including a cool Mickey Mouse Clubhouse. She is really enjoying this toy, and has confirmed her status as a fangirl, by getting all upset when I tried to put some of her older, larger figurines into the clubhouse. Apparently, the Donald Duck and Goofy figures were "not the right size!" Well, EXCUSE me.

She also scored a Ladybug game, a electronic keyboard, and a stuffed animal.

B. Late night movie on HBO

I saw parts of an action movie about a violent encounter between American Indians and Viking warriors. It was kind of cool, though possibly too cliche in that the natives were the usual hippies with bows and arrows. The hero is a Viking orphan who has grown up among the natives and fights against the evil Viking invaders. Still, not a bad premise.

Until the hero tricks the heavily armored Vikings into walking out onto some ice.

Hero: "They come from a land of ice and snow, but they do not know our Spring."

Yeah, right, Vikings have no idea how dangerous thin ice is, and would never think of sending one guy across at a time or even just walking around it.

Nameless Viking: "He is trying to slow us down! We are not cowards!"

It's a little known fact that just being stupid enough to fall through the ice also gets you into Valhalla. That scene basically ruined the movie for me.

C. Diet Tip

If you don't drink beer you lose more weight than from just the diet. I have lost five kilos already after 3 weeks without any beer.

Asshole

Some asshole brought a monkey doll with an Obama sticker on it to a McCain rally.

He of course is getting the attention he wants while harming the candidate he supposedly supports.

Oh well. If Obama wins, I hope this fucker is heartbroken enough to stop participating in politics.

Spam Catch of the Day

I have get spam from Eurotrash who thinks American government uses the word Formular.

Better luck phishing next time, Ivan, Hans or Pedro.

p.s. I never did get my stimulus check.

Yahoo News Headlines

1. Headline we have not seen in a long time...

Learn where to keep cash once taking it out of stocks

Next up..."Under the mattress or in a hole in the ground actually safer and more attractive than in any financial institution worldwide."

2. The presidential candidates are so busy merging their positions that the headline writers can now economize them into single headlines.

Obama, McCain health care plans would reduce uninsured

I wonder if either of them is now thinking to themselves "do I really want to be president?"

If you are feeling overwhelmed...

Don't worry! It easier than ever to start over.

First, drop the house payment and let the bank deal with the mortgage crisis.

www.youwalkaway.com

Next, drive you and your family over to Nebraska, where you can abandon your children without any legal repercussions.

Now, all you have left is the wife to get rid of and you are basically a college student again.

p.s. Don't worry about the Roth IRA or 401K accounts. Those will liquidate themselves within a few days time.

The Society of Systematic Innovation

They sent me an email about their 2009 workshop "The First Systematic Innovation Conference & Problem Solving Workshop Ever"

The first day is devoted to:

技能導引: Patent circumvention & strategy workshop專利迴避與佈局研習會

Hmmmmmm, systemic innovation's first concern is how to get around the other guy's patent.

How innovative!

Karl, if you are interested I can forward the e-mail to you. Maybe we could both attend. Its in January 2009.

Overpriced

Desk lamp from Design Within Reach.

Retails at US$ 370.00.

Oh, and the light bulb costs you 5 bucks extra.

Maybe its made of Adamantine.

Nice Moment

I caught my daughter making an imaginary phone call to Winnie the Pooh today.

Very cute. She got all embarrassed until I left.

Then she talked to him some more.

Probably about the near-collapse of the money market last week.

MSN Lifestyle Tips or whatever

from the Messenger pop-up window...

"8 Power Salads"

Hmmmmm, should I try the Makita or stick with Black& Decker?

p.s. Don't click on the link. Its just there for evidence.

About some of those China prices...

One of the great mysteries of life is how in the hell do some Chinese companies manage to sell products at "below cost." For example, I have heard about super low prices for children's markers, 50% cheaper than a Hong Kong owned factory in China can offer.

Maybe they can pay less for labor than the foreign-owned firm. Maybe they can skip a lot of regulations. Maybe they use poor materials or have a sweetheart deal with a state-owned supplier. Maybe they just want to make a tiny profit. Still, its hard to see how that comes out to 50% cheaper and below the cost of raw materials.

But now I hear this complaint coming from a local Chinese factory owner discussing the office chair market. There is an area in China that has become a hub for office chairs (Anji in Zhejiang, I believe.) All the buyers flocked there to buy chairs for a while. The prices were super low and seemed to be below cost. This factory owner said he checked into their costs for labor, and found it was not much lower than for Dongguan. Land was cheaper, but that should not matter as much.

His theory is that many of these factories are simply not planning to pay their suppliers at the end of the day, and take all of their "profits" and invest in land, hotels, etc. in their own personal name. No wonder they can offer prices below cost, because they don't plan on having any costs.

And this is not a Chinese thing, because I have heard there was once an American importer of office chairs who went from province to province placing orders and then never paying his factories. This guy of course had all of Wal-Mart's orders. Everyone in the industry was going bananas for years trying to figure out how those prices were possible. They weren't.

This year I also had to compete against "bankruptcy pricing" with two different factories. I sure felt better when they finally died off, owing millions of US dollars to their suppliers, and my customers shut up about my price increases. Hey, I could keep prices low too if I never planned on paying for any materials.

Another theory on how some China factories can quote below cost is that they are not actually in the business of making products for profit, but instead are laundering money for corrupt officials or criminals. These officials need to get their ill gotten loot out of China and pay up to 15% to have factories help them do this. Since the factories are really in the money laundering business, they quote below cost to get some big orders fast. They are willing to lose 50 cents per piece to get a nice steady flow going. I would guess they would also choose large-volume low-tech industries like marker pens or office chairs. Supposedly Zhongshan is a big center of this activity.

I find both of these theories to be pretty compelling.

Of course, the first theory depends on suppliers being willing to offer credit to their customers. At some point, the suppliers who survive (and most don't) would wise up and demand payment in cash. Guess what? That is now the situation in China. You have to pay cash to get most materials. And funnily, enough, prices are rising in China, perhaps reflecting not just Chinese growth but an end to using bankruptcy pricing.

Coincidence or evidence?

Tips from a China Hand

1. Turn on the air conditioning. Full blast. Company is paying after all.

2. When loading your ipod (killer app when sitting in traffic in Dongguan) make sure you don't somehow configure it to auto-fill alphabetically. ABBA is good stuff. But not that good.

3. The time you spent fixing a quality control problem for your QC contract customer could have been spent more profitably selling real products to a real company that is willing to pay more for good products in the first place.

4. You must be crazy, because customers will fucking take it up the ass to "go direct" to a shitty factory rather than pay some blood-sucking trading company the small amount that would make all this shit go away in the first place.

5. You know China's economy is fucked up when they let blogspot posts through.

5a. Don't trust anyone who says they are a "China Hand" unless they are an 81 year old Marine Corps vet. Or maybe a 18 year old girl from Hunan who is washing your feet.

From behind the Great Firewall

Are you feeling pissed off at the world? Do you want to stick to The Man?

Just go into your gmail account, and start clicking on all of those content advertisers.

They're probably paying around US$ 0.50 per click.

or, if you are feeling responsible today, my advice is the opposite:

Unless you really want to buy sidewalk chalk with a minimum order of 300 cartons DON'T FREAKING CLICK ON MY ADS.

Carbon Footprints

Going veggie can slash your carbon footprint: study

Here' s the breakdown.

Meateater = driving 4,758 km

Vegetarian = driving 2,427 km

Vegan = driving 629 km

Organic Vegan = driving 281 km

But they forgot something:

Killing the dirty hippy who wants you to become an Organic Vegan would let you offset your meat eating for 5.78 years.*

*Assume said hippy would live 50 years, producing 281 km worth of driving carbon emissions per year for a total of 14,050 driving mile equivalents, divisible by 4,758 miles/year = 5.78.

Cheat Sheets for Factory Audits

Jury awards Mattel $100 million in Bratz doll maker lawsuit

While trying to learn what the heck a Bratz doll is, I found this interesting tidbit on Wikipedia.

The allegations in the report describe practices found at many Chinese factories producing name-brand products for export. They include required overtime exceeding the legal maximum of 36 hours a month, forcing workers to stay on the job to meet stringent production quotas and the denial of paid sick leave and other benefits.^[11] The report shows copies of what it says are "cheat sheets" distributed to workers before auditors from Wal-Mart or other customers arrive to make sure the factory passes inspections intended to ensure the supplier meets labor standards.

I definitely believe that the factory uses cheat sheets. This is a common practice to get around the social audit requirements. Another ploy is for an factory that can pass audits to outsource its production to other factories who could not. I always wondered if it was worth the effort to game the system by keeping multiple books, creating cheat sheets for workers, etc.

I also think the auditors who make more money when the factory fails (repeat business!) have a little too much incentive to be anal. You can always find a reason to fail any inspection. We had one our factories fail based on not having enough first aid kits available, even though the factory had a full-time nurse on duty. I wonder if a bribe would have resulted in the auditors finding that they were "mistaken" about the violation.

Walmart does have these kinds of problems finding suppliers. They have to be huge and able to ship massive quantities in a two-week shipping window. That is very difficult from a logistical perspective. They have to pass the audit, which means they have the same costs associated with a Western plant. But they have to be dirt cheap, too.

Personally, I am a little tired of all of the hoops everyone has to jump through. Our importer may be doing business with a large chain store soon, so I just got the 50 pages of requirements in PDF form. Yay! Its quite streamlined now, so the China buying offices start dealing direct with the importer's China office (that's us.) All of the tedious work is thrown on our shoulders, while the importer sends a one liner email:

"Hey buddy, I am assuming we are all okay with these requirements, right?"

Yeah, let me review the 7 different test regimes they require and get back to you. Oh, and the buying office is asking me about payment terms...I guess I should feel good that the customer trusts me about this stuff.

CHINA TRIP: September 3-19

Total Days outside Taiwan in 2008: 73

Yahoo News

GOP 'war room' revs up as Romney hits the airwaves

Story not very interesting, don't need to click the link, but I found two gems:

Giuliani, along with another vanquished McCain foe, Mitt Romney, made a flurry of media rounds in the continuing GOP effort to counter the Democratic convention narrative.

Anyone want to bet that this journalist has reads fantasy novels? I mean this in a good way..."defeated opponent" is boring sounding. Vanquished Foe is much better. I imagine McCain the Barbarian defiling the body of Romney before enslaving his wife and children. Though I don't know how a Gelatinous Cube ends up as a Barbarian.

At the same time, three GOP members of Congress — a Cuban-American, a woman and a Jew —

Wait, wait, I think I know this joke. Does an elephant come into the bar next?

were among party people who joined Mitt Romney on the party's shoot-from-the-sidelines attack on Barack Obama on Tuesday.

Oh. Its not a joke. Damn.

Punished for purchases

The allegations, in part, focus on CompuCredit's Aspire Visa, a subprime credit card for risky borrowers. The FTC claims that CompuCredit didn't properly disclose that it monitored spending and cut credit lines if consumers used their cards at certain places. Among them: tire and retreading shops, massage parlors, bars, billiard halls and marriage counseling offices.

"The company touted that cardholders could use their credit cards anywhere," says J. Reilly Dolan, assistant director for financial practices at the FTC. "What they didn't say was that you could be punished for specific kinds of purchases."

That's pretty smart of the card companies. Except I don't get tire and retreading shops as a danger sign for credit risk. Oh and they got the sequence wrong in the story. It should be chronological as follows:

1. Billiard Hall

2. Bar

3. Massage Parlor

wait 12-18 hours and then...

4. Marriage Counseling

Armchair General

Is Georgia is too far away for NATO or the USA to militarily help them?


...and for an even better map that shows the roads and ports, plus Russian bombing attacks, check out the Georgian Ministry of Defence website here...

TURKEY would be the key...with the huge caveat that they may not be interested in helping Georgia. But, assuming they are concerned about keeping a buffer state with Russia and protecting the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline, let's look at what they bring to the equation.

Turkey borders Georgia. Turkey is a NATO ally.

Logistically, Turkey has Mediterranean and Black Sea ports. Turkey has a US airbase at Incirlik. Turkey has roads leading to Batumi, a port in Georgia, and from there, road connections to Tbilisi, including one that does not go through Russian occupied Gori. But these roads, including a direct land route from Ardahan, look like they go through serious mountain terrain. Note also the Erzurum is a major air base for the Turkish air force and has runways that are the second longest in Turkey.

In terms of direct military aid, Turkey already has a frigate off the coast of the port of Batumi in Georgia, and as NATO's second largest army, its land forces, could deploy into Western Georgia along the coastal roads, and possibly into Eastern Georgia via Ardahan. The 9th Corps based at Erzurum, with its 9th infantry division in Sarikamis, would be the most likely forces to be used. Note that this information is completely speculative, and according to Wikipedia, many of the Turkish 3rd Army forces in the area, including an entire Corps in Trabazon have been moved after the Cold War ended (to Cyrprus and the Iraq border.) I wonder if any units are moving back?

ARMENIA almost certainly won't help.

As they have a Russian military base on their territory that supposedly was used to send air sorties against Georgia. But they do have a road into Georgia and a rail link from Turkey through their territory to Tbilisi. But they don't have a seaport or any US bases, so they would not be too useful in any event.

AZERBAIJAN is very slightly more likely to help.

They are already involved in NATO Partnership for Peace and have deployed peacekeepers to Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Earlier this year, there was an espionage scandal in Azerbaijan involving the Russians. Even so, taking on the Russian bear would be too much.

Then again, they might be worried enough by Georgia's fate to decide to help, logistically at least. The price for serious assistance might be a quid-pro-quo on Nagorno-Karabakh and I am not sure that would be forthcoming. In any case, they have road and rail links to Tbilisi, though their lack of an ocean port along with easy land access again limits to the usefulness of their territory as a logistics base.

CONCLUSION: Turkey will be the main decision maker as to whether Georgia could be defended by the West or not.

If Turkey is willing to help even as merely a logistics base it does not look impossible at all (ignoring the question of if we have enough troops to do so.) In fact, its probably a better supply line than we have in Afghanistan.

If they are interested in keeping their pipeline and buffer state in Georgia intact to the point of offering military assistance, defending Georgia looks extremely viable. If they supplied most of the land forces, NATO could focus on the air and naval forces which are not as committed to the counter-insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I have to wonder if the Georgians shouldn't have been buttering up the Turks more than the Americans. (Maybe they have been?)

NOTE: I am not sure I would advocate defending Georgia, except diplomatically. This is just a thought exercise.

Yahoo News

Scientists prove that Karl is a pussy.

Ghenghis "You wouldn't like me when I'm angry" Khan

Yahoo Headline

College presidents seek to lower drinking age from 21 to 18

Now they want to do that. After ganking me out of free drinks when I was an undergrad.

Some group called the Amethyst Initiative wants to rethink the drinking age. I love the photos they use on their website. They reminded me of all the dinner parties I attended as an 18 year old freshman, where I drank the social glass or two of red wine with my fellow scholars.

I guess the other instances of college drinking like beer bonging in the dorm bathrooms or playing quarters until people threw up have never been documented with photographs so they couldn't use those in their website.

I got slammed

in A&A on Saturday.

Also by beer. I did a recount and it wasn't really that much beer. But it did its work.

I'd describe myself as sloshy almost ready to chew my cud by the time I left.

Somehow I did not get in trouble with the wife.

Debate Coaches go head to head

NOT SAFE FOR WORK DUE TO LANGUAGE AND HIPPY TAKING DOWN HIS PANTS.



Amazing.

NOT SAFE FOR WORK DUE TO LANGUAGE AND HIPPY TAKING DOWN HIS PANTS.

Yahoo Headline

Huge inflatable art piece escapes museum, wreaks havoc

GENEVA (AFP) - A giant inflatable dog turd by American artist Paul McCarthy blew away from an exhibition in the garden of a Swiss museum, bringing down a power line and breaking a greenhouse window before it landed again, the museum said Monday.

The art work, titled "Complex Shit", is the size of a house. The wind carried it 200 metres (yards) from the Paul Klee Centre in Berne before it fell back to Earth in the grounds of a children's home, said museum director Juri Steiner.

The inflatable turd broke the window at the children's home when it blew away on the night of July 31, Steiner said. The art work has a safety system which normally makes it deflate when there is a storm, but this did not work when it blew away.

Steiner said McCarthy had not yet been contacted and the museum was not sure if the piece would be put back on display.

Looks like there was some warning...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7374546.stm

Fighting the last war...

So, since we seem to have gotten better at fighting insurgencies, built up light infantry units, promoted generals who understand unconventional war, etc., now of course we might have a crisis with the Russians in Georgia. Who have all those tanks and artillery.

Its like the rule of "preparing to to fight the last war" is making sure to assert itself or something.

Libertarian Paternalism

This is supposed to be an up and coming "Third Way" in politics, sort of a cross between the Nanny State that tells you what to do and the Cool Uncle State that lets you do whatever you want to do. The Tories in the UK are enthusiastic about this stuff and this book in particular. (You can listen to a podcast by the author here.)

I posted the example before of some place in SoCal banning fast food restaurants in an attempt to force people to eat better food. That's pretty much the Nanny State.

Now we have the city of LA forcing restaurants to post the calorie counts on their menus. This would be an example of Libertarian Paternalism...you're allowed to make your own choice, but information is provided.

I like this idea much better than the ban. I'm counting calories as it is right now, and that would be a useful bit of information for me to make decisions. I know that in Taiwan McDonalds prints calories on the packaging, but isn't that a bit too late, once you've already bought the item?

(I also like Unit Pricing. Carrefour does a good job with this. Costco not so much. It actually pisses me off when there is no unit pricing in a store.)

Now, the restaurants are apparently opposed to this idea. I am not sure why that should be.

Once you've actually sat down in a restaurant, are you going to leave because the items on the menu are too fattening? Like you don't already know that TGI Fridays has huge portions of fried foods. Will most people who are not on a diet even care?

Or is there some risk that people start to order lighter fare on menus which somehow would translate to less profit?

I'd be interested to know how much of a hit the Hostess people took on sales of Twinkies when it had to first print nutritional information on the packaging.

Or maybe its just a pain in the ass to calculate calorie counts for menus? Using the recipe calculator doesn't seem too hard.

And will there be monitoring and enforcement?

Wal-Mart's China Woes

Ding dong the Witch is dead! Ding Dong the Witch is dead!

Walmart buying offices in China are being closed.

業內人士分析，沃爾瑪全球採購中心在大陸地區兩地裁員，源於其經營不善。據悉，這個採購部門自2002年4月份正式成立以來，經營情況不好，東莞分部成立於當年12月5日，而採購中心成立的目的，是便於公司直接進入業務和工廠的直業採購，從而降低採購成本。

Loose translation is that Wal-Mart's offices that were set up in 2002 to buy direct from factories are not doing very well.

但是，從成立以來，該部門一直競爭不過為沃爾瑪服務的貿易商，採購中心的增加直接採購與降低成本方面，都沒有幫上沃爾瑪的忙，反而增加了成本

In fact, the buying offices could not beat the trading companies, and have not helped Wal-Mart reduced their cost, but in fact have increased them.

UPDATE:

Cool video shows Wal-Mart stores expansion in the USA.

Errrrrrratta

Autoblinda 41 - this Italian armored car could go up to 49 mph with a 20 mm cannon and 8mm machine guns fore and aft to help clear any traffic. A fully-stocked gelato and cappucino service station in the rear made this a popular vehicle with Italian troops.

Estonia has a GDP per capita of about US$ 14,000 and is the richest of the 3 Baltic states, and one of the richest nations in Eastern Europe. While Latveria has Dr. Doom, Estonia is sadly lacking in supervillians. Just think how much capital investment you could get by attracting a supervillian to relocate his secret base to your country!

GREAT NEWS!

There has been a major fire in a Nippon Steel factory making coke. This will cause a huge drop in steel production, which may mean MORE steel price increases. And just today my customer told me not to raise any more prices because, you know, oil is down, so steel should be next. (Pretty falacious reasoning and even if steel was going to come down in 30 days how does that help me buy material NOW for orders he wants NOW?)

p.s. Oil is now at 125 or so, but it was at 100 in January, so its still up 25%...

Yahoo Headlines

L.A. poised to vote on fast-food ban in low-income areas

http://www.yahoo.com/s/925151

I am not a libertarian, but stuff like this makes me re-consider.

Sometimes you have to read your spam...

Message subject:

Both Obama And Mccain Claim That They Will Deport Elton John

Body:

[audio] Church Group Offers Homosexual New Life In Closet

plus some link which I won't even touch with Chaon's network connection.

Yahoo News Headlines

Mystery of who, when and why for McCain VP deepens

Seriously. I don't even click this story because of the headline.

They actually included 3 of the "Five W's" of journalism in the headline.

Okay, maybe its me. Maybe some people are deeply interested in the VP selection horse race. Its probably full of insights and analysis, but I''d rather read a story about Rye and Pimp's fantasy baseball trades.

I call this McCain exploiting MSM guilt to disrupt Obama's overseas trip.

Sort of like a "Balance of Fluff."

You learn something everyday

Frenemy (from wikipedia)

Frenemy or frienemy is a portmanteau of friend and enemy which can refer to either an enemy disguised as a friend or to a partner that is simultaneously a competitor.

In personal relationships, the use of the term 'frenemy' has become increasingly used to describe two (or more) people who are apparently friends but are actually enemies. Such relationships may occur due to the desire (of either) to keep a close eye on the actions of their close rival (i.e. keep your friends close, keep your enemies even closer).

Alternatively, two people who are apparently enemies may actually be friends in private, with the apparently hostile relationship portrayed in order to deceive or for other forms of gain. Such an arrangement may even be used to cover up a secret relationship between the two parties. Or, the two people might actually like and hate each other simultaneously.

It can also apply to international relations, such as US-Pakistan, US-Saudi Arabia, US-China, and of course US-France relations. Are these friends masquerading as enemies or the other way 'round?

Bonus thought:

While thinking about the word "frenemy", you may have the word "frenema" somehow pop into your head. If that happens, just know that a google search shows that you are not alone in this.

Hope and Change

57 states and 8-10 years. Looks like for in for big, big changes. Here's the math:

57 states means that Texas will indeed take their option to split into five states, while DC, Puerto Rico, and Guam get statehood. Or maybe California finally splits into two states. I am betting Southern California's new capital would be Chula Vista, to make sure they are safe from invasion from any unificationist threat from the North.

Or wait, maybe we're talking a 54' 40" scenario. The Coalition of the Swilling would be the US, France, Britain, and Denmark. France gets Quebec, Britain some of the Atlantic , Denmark gets the coveted Nunavut and Hans Island, while the US scoops up the 7 border provinces. And the best part of a Canadian war is that you don't really need to juice up the intel to sell the public on it. Pretty much just needs a show of hands.

8-10 years simply means that close to the end of the most successful presidency in history, there will be a movement to allow a two-year bonus extension to presidency if your approval numbers are above 50% in your last year. Or maybe an extra year if you get the ball to go up the ramp and into that hole that lights up. That's quite tricky to do once let alone twice, but the O-man has such a supple wrist. Keep in mind a tilt means you lose control of Congress for 2 years, though.

A lesson for Taiwan?

The Winter War.

There is a great movie about this war...also called Winter War.

Keep in mind that Finland did not have a large strait separating them from the Soviets, and they also did not depend on a superpower's guarantee.

Of course, the Finns did technically lose.

I would also suggest Taiwan could seriously prepare for an amphibious invasion by China using low tech solutions without reliance on the USA. Are they doing so? I have no idea.

My real point is that many Taiwanese I know are far too ready to believe that China could take them over in 15 minutes....its almost like they wouldn't mind it.

Econonmic Times

I am listening to a podcast This American Life about the mortgage crisis and they do a pretty good job of explaining the situation, especially the global causes. Basically, the global pool of money doubled from 36 trillion dollars to over 70 trillion in just 6 years as China, India, oil exporters etc. started taking off. This money has to be parked somewhere, and it was going into US Treasuries until Greenspan cut interest rates to 1% which caused a wild scramble to find other investments that would yield higher than 1%. Apparently the mortgage backed securities were very popular. "Safe as houses" and with a nice, juicy yield.

Now that bubble has popped and I have to wonder if maybe this same huge surge of money is still wandering around the globe searching for new places to be parked. Say, in commodities?

I'd also say that a lot of that money was invested within China in the form of the kazillion factories that went up, and that are now going down.

Let me re-post a quote from a June 2007 post.

Chinese billionaire Yin Mingshan (尹明善) on liquidity:

"We live in a world of over-abundant liquidity. We live in a China of over-abundant liquidity. Even relatively backward Chongqing is blessed with over-abundant liquidity."

Now, if we have too much liquidity, does that mean the inflation we are seeing is because of that, as inflation is "always monetary" or is that pool of money hard money, i.e. not printed, and thus wouldn't necessarily cause the inflation, but because its seemed to move on from housing to commodities (just a theory) it caused raw material prices to go up beyond "normal" demand, making the appearance of inflation? Note that "normal" demand is rising with China, India, etc., so I am talking about the pool of money acting as starter fluid being dumped on an already raging fire. IANAE, and this is speculation so don't get all up on me here.

So, what should we be investing in? If you could ride the tide of money and time your departures that would make you a lot of money. So what's next after commodities come down?

Yahoo Headlines

Now THIS is a headline!

Iran condemns John McCain for cigarette joke

You don't click that and read this article?

The joke was pretty bad - not very tactful, but it reminds us that John McCain, too, is a dirty, filthy quitter. Not very American if you ask me.

Yahoo Headlines

• Poll: Obama leads McCain among people who don't have pets

But what about those with Chia Pets?

72 Hour Countdown Begins Now!

Yahoo Headlines

Study: Drug in 'magic mushrooms' provides long-term benefit

This is one headline I am not even going to read, (mis) analyze, or debunk. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the glow it gives me.